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| BLOG ARCHIVE: SEPTEMBER 1-15, 2008.
OBAMA'S RECORD HAUL; PREZ POLLS; DEMS PICK STJ REPLACEMENT. P2008.
Barack Obama set an all-time record in August for P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: OHIO.
District Democratic leaders selected Warrensville Heights Mayor
Marcia Fudge as the replacement nominee in the CD-11 race. Congresswoman
Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D) died unexpectedly on August 20. The
Cleveland-based seat is solidly Democratic, so Fudge is assured
of victory in November. There will also be a largely irrelevent
special election in late November to fill the seat until January
2009. As the election will not take place until after Congress
is expected to adjourn for the year, the winner may never get
the opportunity to cast a single House vote. Fudge, however, is
the new nominee for the full two-year term on the November ballot.
US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. WOW ... NINETEEN NEW POLLS TO REPORT. P2008. Barack Obama and John McCain made nice on Thursday, in honor of the non-partisan tone of the 9/11 observances. Thus, not much to report in P2008 developments (besides the Obama/Bill Clinton photo op and private lunch in NYC). P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. SEPTEMBER 11 REMEMBRANCE; AND MORE SWING STATE POLLS THAN EVER BEFORE. P2008.
Barack Obama and John McCain are P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: DE, MN, NH, NY PRIMARY RESULTS; PLUS PREZ, US SEN, GOV AND CONGRESS POLLS. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: DELAWARE: Democrats saw an upset in the open gubernatorial race, as favored Lieutenant Governor John Carney narrowly lost to State Treasurer Jack Markell by a 51-49 vote. Retired Judge Bill Lee won the GOP gubernatorial primary with 72%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: In CD-1, former Congressman Jeb Bradley defeated former State Health Secretary John Stephen in a highly competitive race. Bradley will next face a rematch against vulnerable freshman Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (D). In CD-2, radio talk show host Jennifer Horn captured 41% of the vote and won the four-way GOP primary. Horn is an underdog against freshman Congressman Paul Hodes (D) in November. NEW YORK: As expected in the open CD-13 contest, NYC Councilor Mike McMahon (D) and former State Assemblyman Bob Straniere (R) easily won their respective primaries. In CD-21, State Energy Authority President and former State Assemblyman Paul Tonko defeated four other Dems, making him a safe bet to replace retiring Congressman Mike McNulty (D). There was a major upset in the open CD-26 Dem primary -- which most believed to be a fight between Iraq War veteran Jon Powers and wealthy businessman Jack Davis. Although the DCCC backed Powers, retired attorney and environmentalist Alice Kryzan defeated both men. She won 41%, versus 36% for Powers and 23% for Davis. Kryzan will next face businessman Chris Lee (R) for the seat being vacated by retiring Congressman Tom Reynolds (R) US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups:
CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. LOTSA PREZ POLLS; PLUS DE, DC, MN, NH, NY, RI, VT & WI PRIMARY PREVIEWS. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups:
3 OUT OF 4 APPEAR ON SUNDAY NEWS SHOWS. P2008. Barack Obama, Joe Biden and John McCain all appeared on the Sunday morning news shows. The only absentee: Sarah Palin, who is not yet giving any interviews. Palin plans her first media interview in "a few days" with ABC News' Charlie Gibson. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis told Fox News on Sunday that Palin would only submit to media questions if Palin will be treated "with respect and deference." NEW
POLLS. Nada. No new independent state polls released
over the weekend for President, or any of the US Senate or Governor
races. RON PAUL ON PREZ BALLOT; YOUNG WINS ALASKA PRIMARY; NRSC PULLS OUT OF NEW MEXICO. P2008.
GOP Congressman P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: NEW MEXICO. According to the AP, the NRSC canceled the entire ad buy it reserved in the state on behalf of Congressman Steve Pearce (R). The move certainly seems to imply the GOP is writing-off the open US Senate seat to Congressman Tom Udall (D). US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: ALASKA.
Congressman Don Young (R) -- the target of a federal corruption probe -- held on to narrowly win renomination over Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell. State election officials completed the ballot counting late Friday night of all the roughly 25,000 absentee and provisional
ballots. Young initially led by 151 votes with all precincts counted on
primary night last week, but ballots postmarked by election day and received by Friday were counted under state law. The absentee and provisional ballots slightly widened Young's lead to 239 votes. The final numbers: Young - 48,006, Parnell - 47,767. Military ballots from overseas can still be counted if they are received by September 10, but it is not believed there are enough remaining unreturned military ballots for Parnell to overcome Young's slim advantage. Young's victory is very good news for the Democrats, as we are now changing the race rating to Leans DEM. See the latest polls: ALABAMA.
A follow-up to the SurveyUSA poll the other day showing Jay Love
(R) leading Bobby Bright (D) for the open CD-2 seat
by a lopsided 56-39 vote. It seems both the poll sponsor Roll
Call and the pollster agree the results were improperly skewed
by an error with significantly undercounting of the African-American
percentage of the district's voters. Here is the explanation Roll
Call published: "Roll Call asked SurveyUSA
pollster Jay Leve to 're-weight' the results based on greater
black turnout. According to [pollster Jay] Leve, Love's lead shrinks
to 50-44 if black turnout equals 2004 levels. It shrinks even
more to 49-46 -- within the 4 percent margin of error -- if black
turnout increases to 27 percent." McCAIN'S BIG NIGHT;GOP CONGRESSMAN CALLS OBAMA "UPPITY"; DETROIT MAYOR RESIGNS; LOUISIANA POSTPONES PRIMARY; ROB ANDREWS RETURNS. REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION. OBAMA. Congressman Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA) created a stir on Thursday when he repeatedly used a racially tinged word when describing Barack Obama. In an interview with Congressional Quarterly, Westmoreland was asked about the comparative speaking styles of Sarah Palin and Michelle Obama. "Honestly, I’ve never paid that much attention to Michelle Obama. Just what little I’ve seen of her and Senator Obama is that they’re a member of an elitist class ... that thinks that they’re uppity," said the Congressman. "'Uppity', you said," inquired the reporter, giving Westmoreland a chance to un-do the comment. "Yeah, uppity,” confirmed Westmoreland. CQ posted the audio of the interview here. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: NEW
JERSEY. LOUISIANA. Due to Hurricane Gustav striking the state earlier this week, Governor Bobby Jindal (R) by executive order postponed this Saturday's scheduled congressional primary elections. Instead, the state is tentatively looking to hold the primary a week later on September 13. GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: DETROIT. Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D) announced Thursday he will resign from office and plead guilty to two counts of obstruction of justice/perjury. In return, prosecutors dropped six other counts and agreed to a sentence of four months in jail and five years probation. A defiant Kilpatrick said Thursday evening the city was in better shape than it was seven years ago when took office. He even vowed a political return: "Sometimes standing strong means stepping down. But Detroit you have set me up for a comeback." CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. PALIN'S NATIONAL DEBUT; PREZ POLLS; AZ PRIMARY RESULTS; AL, NM HOUSE POLLS. REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION. Wednesday P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: ARIZONA. Our belated results from Tuesday's primary. CD-1: State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick cruised to an easy win in the Democratic primary. On the GOP side, mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay narrowly defeated three others. Although the seat is currently held by retiring Congressman Rick Renzi (R), Kirkpatrick is now the frontrunner over Hay to score a pickup in November. Race rating: Leans DEM. CD-5: As expected, Maricopa County Treasurer Dave Schweikert won a close victory in the competitive, six-way GOP primary. A social and fiscal conservative, Schweikert will next face freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell (D). Race rating: Toss-Up. Two more Arizona races to watch in November -- but ones without primaries this week -- are CD-3 (GOP Congressman John Shadegg versus Dem attorney Bob Lord - Leans GOP) and CD-8 (freshman Dem Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords versus GOP State Senate President Tim Bee - Leans DEM). CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. DUBYA, LIEBERMAN SPEAK AT GOP CONVO; US HOUSE UPDATES. REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION. Tuesday's ARIZONA. No primary results to post -- as I don't play to stay up late updating the numbers (due to the time zone difference). But you can follow the live results here. CONGRESS.
Here are two brief reports from the US House races. MORE QUESTIONS ON PALIN; GOP CONVO RETURNS TO NORMAL; ARIZONA PRIMARY PREVIEW. REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION. With Hurricane Gustav significantly less
destructive than had been initially feared, the Republican National
Convention will return to a normal schedule on Tuesday. Cindy
McCain and Laura Bush both made brief stage appearances on ARIZONA.
Voters will select nominees on Tuesday in two hot congressional
primaries. CD-1: CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. |
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fundraising
in a single month: $66 million. By contrast, John McCain raised
$50 million in August. 
Here
is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the
Presidential race:
setting
partisan politics aside on Thursday, in remembrance of the anniversary
of the September 11 attacks. Both men will appear together at
a Ground Zero memorial service and issue a joint statement. The
point of the joint events is to emphasize that what unites us
as Americans is always much more than what divides us over partisan
political squabbles.
MINNESOTA:
US Senator Norm Coleman (R), radio talk show host Al
Franken (D) and former US Senator Dean Barkley (Independence)
each romped to landslide primary victories and will face-off in
one of the most competitive US Senate races in the nation. In
the US House race, no particularly competitive primary races.
In the CD-1 primary , physician Brian Davis defeated State Senator
Dick Day by a 2-to-1 margin. Freshman Congressman Tim Walz (D)
is favored over Davis in November.
GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
PRIMARY
PREVIEWS. Seven states and the District of Columbia hold
primaries on Tuesday. Here are the key races to watch.
Ron
Paul will see his name appear on Presidential primary ballots
in November in two states: Montana and Louisiana. The Constitution
Party of Montana, which is feuding with the national Constitution
Party over the issue of abortion, has placed Paul on the Montana
ballot as the party's nominee instead of official CP nominee Chuck
Baldwin. In Louisiana, a group of Paul supporters have succeeded
in placing him on the ballot there under the label of the fictional
Taxpayers Party. Montana is a hotly contested swing state this
year, while Louisiana is fairly solid McCain state. Paul refused
to make a deal with the RNC to grant him a prominent speaking
slot at this week's national convention in exchange for Paul endorsing
McCain. Instead, Paul held a rival convention across town from
the GOP convention.
Mayor
Mark Begich (D) - 49%, US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 46%, teacher
Bob Bird (AK IND) - 2%. Note: In related news, the Alaska
Libertarian Party is thinking of replacing little-known nominee
David Haase with former State Representative Dave Cuddy. Cuddy,
who finished second place behind Stevens in the GOP primary, said
he thinks the swap is "unlikely." Haase is accusing
state party leaders of "trying to rig" the election
for Begich.
he
wrote: "With all her charm, [Palin] is still a pick aimed
squarely at the Republican base. In a high turnout Presidential
year, I am not worried about turning out the base. I’m worried
about everybody else we need to win and I fear that among those
voters, Sarah Palin will be a dud ... I think she’ll ultimately
be a polarizer. After last night’s smash, Republicans are in deep
love. Nothing thrills ‘em like a good 'us vs. them' speech. But
I’d guess that most Democrats had the opposite reaction. In a
year where the Democrat generic numbers are 10+ points better
than the Republican, I don’t like the math of a strategy that
just polarized the election along party base lines. Among the
vital sliver of voters in the middle, I think Palin’s rock solid
social conservatism will be a turn off ... Palin’s inexperience
is a weakness, denying McCain an argument that has been helping
him against Obama ... So that’s my concern with Sarah Palin. Interesting
person, bad strategic choice to win the election." 
Congressman
Rob Andrews (D) pledged earlier this year -- when he launched
his primary bid against US Senator Frank Lautenberg -- that he
would not seek re-election under any circumstances if he lost
the primary. Of course, nobody believed him when Camille Andrews
-- Rob's wife -- ran for his open CD-1 seat. Well, Lautenberg
smashed Andrews back in June. On Thursday, Rob Andrews announced
he was bowing to the "strong encouragement" from Democrats
in his district who wanted him to jump back into the House race.
Camille is stepping aside and district party leaders will now
substitute Rob Andrews as the Democratic nominee. He is a safe
bet to win in November over minister Dale Glading (R) and four
others.
highlights
included speeches from President Bush, Joe Lieberman, Tom Ridge,
plus Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and other former White House
hopefuls. Lieberman's speech will likely seal his expulsion from
the Senate Democratic caucus and the loss of his committee chairmanship
at the end of this year. According to various media reports, President
Bush offered to speak in person at the convention on Tuesday evening
but, at the request of the McCain strategists, was asked instead
to speak to the convention via remote telecast from DC. In related
P2008 news, the McCain campaign began airing paid TV spots this
week in North Carolina and Georgia -- meaning his campaign now
believes these states are potentially in play and competitive.
Today's official sound bite seems to be: "Is anyone really
'ready' to be President? That's hard to say."
Monday,
urging peope to donate to disaster relief efforts. Mitt Romney
and others are scheduled to speak to the convention on Tuesday.
In other related news, VP candidate Sarah Palin on Monday acknowledged
she has hired an attorney to defend her in the so-called "Troopergate"
scandal in Alaska related to alleged mis-use of her authority.
Palin denies any wrongdoing. Also, Palin was forced over the weekend
to publicly acknowledge that her unmarried, 17-year-old daughter
is pregnant. Palin is an advocate of "abstinence only"
sex education programs. Barack Obama refused to comment on the
story of Palin's daughter except to say that "people’s
families are off-limits and people's children are especially off-limits"
and the media should "back off these type of stories."
Cindy McCain came to Palin's defense on the experience question
during an interview on ABC, explaining that Palin has foreign
policy experience because "Alaska is the closest part of
our continent to Russia. It’s not as if she doesn’t
understand what’s at stake here." Palin never visited
Russia and did not have a passport until 2007. New allegations
also surfaced that Palin in the early 1990s was a once member
of the secessionist Alaskan Independence Party. AK-IP leaders
openly boasted last year that Palin was in fact a member before
she first ran for city council. Finally, it appears McCain was
wrong when he said Palin "championed reform to end the [federal
earmark] abuses" like Alaska's so-called "bridge to
nowhere." Palin in fact openly supported the federal appropriation
for the bridge project during her 2006 run for Governor. According
to various media sources, at least ten RNC lawyers are currently
in Alaska vetting Palin to ensure there will be no more surprises
over the next two months.
Both
parties have hot races in the swing-seat contest to replace Congressman
Rick Renzi (R), was successfully pressured by the House GOP Leadership
to retire after his indictment on federal corruption charges.
On the GOP side, State Mining Association Executive Director Sydney
Hay and attorney Sandra Livingstone are the two frontrunners.
Both have support from various party leaders, but Hay appears
to have the edge in the four-way primary. Hay lost the crowded
'02 GOP primary to Renzi when the seat was last open. On the Democratic
side, State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick is the heavy favorite
to win the primary. She is strongly backed by party leaders and
organized labor. Three others are running including progressive
attorney Howard Shanker and former local TV news reporter Mary
Kim Titla. CD-5: Six Republicans are competing
for the right to face freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell (D)
in November. Five of the GOP candidates are viable contenders:
Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, former congressional
aide Jim Ogsbury, State Representatives Mark Anderson and Susan
Bitter-Smith, and former State Representative Laura Knaperek.
Schweikert is backed by the Club for Growth, Ogsbury is endorsed
by the Arizona Republic, and all five have won endorsements
from various elected officials. Schweikert and Ogsbury are probably
the two frontrunners, but this should be a close primary contest.
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