The Most Comprehensive Guide to U.S. Politics ... since 1997
| DIRECTORY:
Home | The Presidency
| P2008 Race | State/Federal
Candidates | Political Parties Calendar | Campaign Products & Services | Issues | News Blog | News Links | Job Bank FAQ | View from Abroad | Bookstore | Our Awards | Advertise | About Us | Email Us |
| BLOG ARCHIVE: MAY 1-15, 2008.
CLINTON WINS BIG IN WV; DEM SCORES MAJOR UPSET IN MISSISSIPPI CD-1 SPECIAL ELECTION; STATE PRIMARY RESULTS FROM WV, NE. P2008 - DEMS. As expected, Hillary Clinton rolled to a landslide victory in the West Virginia primary on Tuesday. Clinton won by about a 2.5-to-1 margin. Clinton, in her victory, vowed to continue until the party has a nominee. However, she made a point of noting several times that she and Barack Obama generally share values that contrast sharply with Republican John McCain. In other P2008 news, former Colorado Governor and former Clinton Administration Democratic National Chair Roy Romer endorsed Obama on Tuesday. With his recent superdelegate gains, Obama now needs just 146 more delegates to secure the nomination.
WEST VIRGINIA. Governor Joe Manchin (D) and US Senator Jay Rockefeller (D) both cruised to primary victories by 3-to-1 margins. Both men are very safe in November. Anne Barth -- the long-time state director for US Senator Robert Byrd and the candidate backed by the Dem establisment -- easily won the congressional primary in District 2. Barth will face Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) in November. Race rating: Leans GOP. Click here to see the November nominees. NEBRASKA.
Most eyes were on the open US Senate race. Former Governor and
former US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns won the GOP primary
with 79% over businessman Pat Flynn. Rancher and '06 congressional
nominee Scott Kleeb likewise rolled to a big Dem primary win with
68% over three opponents. Race rating: GOP Favored. Click
here to see the November nominees. OBAMA GAINS 4 SUPERS; WV PRIMARY DAY; MISSISSIPPI CD-1 SPECIAL ELECTION; NEBRASKA PRIMARY; RON PAUL REVOLUTION CONTINUES; NC SEN POLL. P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama scored the endorsements of four more superdelegates on Monday: US Senator Dan Akaka (D-HI), Congressman Tom Allen (D-ME) and two non-enelected officials. Despite Obama's rapidly rising delegate total, Hillary Clinton is expected to score a landslide win in the West Virginia primary on Tuesday. Governor Joe Manchin (D) told CNN that -- despite what is expected to happen to Obama in the primary -- Obama "would also be able to carry the state in the general election" over John McCain.
WEST VIRGINIA. Besides the largely non-contested Presidential primary, there are lots of other races on Tuesday's primary ballot. Governor Joe Manchin will win a massive renomination victory in the Dem primary over State Delegate Mel Kessler. Ditto for US Senator Jay Rockefeller (D), who will easily trounce two primary challengers. Both Manchin and Rockefeller are safe bets to win re-election in November. One race worth watching is the Democratic congressional primary for the CD-2 swing seat. The winner will face Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) in November. Anne Barth, the long-time state director for US Senator Robert Byrd, is the frontrunner. Her two opponents are attorney Thornton Cooper and former South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb.
NORTH CAROLINA. A new Public Policy Polling survey shows the US Senate race is rapidly tightening. The numbers: US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 48%, State Senator Kay Hagan - 43%. P2008
- GOP. Congressman Ron Paul (R) is continuing his insurgent,
libertarian campaign for President against John McCain. The Los
Angeles Times reports Paul is sitting on roughly $5 million
in his campaign account and plans to have his supporters cause
major turmoil at this summer's GOP convention. They want to embarrass
McCain and the party for purportedly abandoning the fiscal and
foreign policy values they believe the Republicans traditionally
held. The move is also intended to give Paul clout to negotiate
for a prime-time televised speaking slot at the convention. OBAMA LEAD GROWS; SEX SCANDAL N.Y. CONGRESSMAN MAY RUN AGAIN; QUESTIONS ABOUT LAUTENBERG'S TRUE HOME; ISAKSON WON'T RUN FOR GA GOV IN '10. P2008
- DEMS. NEW YORK. Congressman Vito Fossella (R) -- mired in an embarrassing extramarital sex scandal following his recent DUI arrest -- appears to be reconsidering rumored plans to either resign or retire. According to the NY-1 cable channel, Fossella has yet to make a formal decision but apparently he now is leaning towards seeking re-election. GOP leaders are generally pushing Fossella to quit, saying they need a stronger candidate now to be able to hold the NYC seat in November. Congressman Peter King (R-NY), a Fossella friend, said that his fellow Republicans need to stop pressuring Fossella and give him the time to make a thoughtful decision. NEW
JERSEY. US GEORGIA:
US Senator Johnny Isakson (R) announced this weekend he will not
be a candidate for Governor in 2010. The move was a surprise,
as he was viewed as the likely frontrunner for the job. Instead,
Isakson said he plans to seek re-election. Governor Sonny Perdue
(R) is term-limited. OBAMA LANDS TWO MORE SUPERS; CONGRESSMAN FOSSELLA, OHIO A.G. SINKING IN SEX SCANDALS; ... AND HOW BIG OF A TENT? P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama landed two more superdelegates on Thursday: Congressmen Rick Larsen (D-WA) and Brad Miller (D-NC). The Larsen endorsement came after Obama paid a surprise visit to the House floor. No new supers on Thursday for Hillary Clinton.
OHIO: Another brewing sex scandal involves Attorney General Marc Dann (D). Over the past two weeks, Dann -- elected in 2006 as a self-styled reformer -- has acknowledged he engaged in a sexual affair with his scheduler and has mismanaged the office. Two top aides to Dann were fired and a third resigned last week following an internal investigation into sexual harassment claims by two female staffers. Dann says he lacked any professional management experience required to properly run a staff as large as the AG's office. Governor Ted Strickland (D), the Ohio AFL-CIO and leading state Dems openly called on Dann to resign or face impeachment. The AFL-CIO called Dann "a disgrace." In a sign that Dann plans to fight back, he hired a Texas political consultant Thursday who specializes in crisis management. FLORIDA.
Republicans love to use the phrase "Big Tent" to describe
the purported range of views welcomed within the GOP -- but a
new Republican candidate in Florida may be testing the limits.
Meet criminal defense attorney Gary Ostrow, the new GOP nominee
for Broward County Public Defender. Ostrow garnered media coverage
when he previously represented Miami Dolphins star runningback
Ricky Williams for testing positive for marijuana, in violation
of the NFL's substance abuse policies. Does Ostrow have unusual
views? Ostrow is a Republican who plagiarizes Karl Marx for his
personal quote on his
AOL Instant Messenger page. "Organized religion is the
sign of the oppressed creature ... It is the opium of the people,"
writes Ostrow. Colorful? Check out Ostrow's personal YouTube
page -- linking to all his favorite soft-core porn and stripper
videos. But -- most unorthodox of all -- was how Ostrow celebrated
the last-minute filing his candidacy papers just before last Friday's
deadline: by announcing he put $200,000 of his own money into
his campaign account ... and then getting himself arrested a few
hours later on felony cocaine possession charges. OBAMA LOOKS TO FALL CAMPAIGN AS MORE SUPERS START TO COMMIT; CLINTON LIKELY TO EXIT RACE IN MID-JUNE. P2008
- DEMS. A day after essentially eliminating Hillary Clinton
as a viable rival, Barack Obama started to lock up the remaining
superdelegates needed to clinch INDIANA
REDUX. Here is the one race result we couldn't call last night.
Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson scored a very narrow 0.5%
victory over wealthy businessman Jim Schellinger in the Dem gubernatorial
contest. Schellinger conceded the race and will not request a
recount. Long Thompson will face Governor Mitch Daniels (R) in
November. Race rating: Toss-Up. OBAMA WINS LANDSLIDE IN NC; INDIANA TOO CLOSE TO CALL; ALL CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENTS SURVIVED TUESDAY'S PRIMARIES. P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama rolled to a big victory in North Carolina -- so big that it virtually wiped out all of the delegate and overall popular vote gains Hillary Clinton made two weeks ago in Pennsylvania. Although Obama had lead in NC polling for weeks, Clinton dropped advertising money and paid staffers into the state, was endorsed last week by Governor Mike Easley, and Bill Clinton spent most of the final week campaigning full-time in the Tarheel State. The NC numbers: Obama - 56%, Clinton - 42%. By contrast, Indiana was a much closer fight. Clinton led by a 51% to 49% vote with 91% counted, but many of the unreported precincts were from communities where Obama was peforming strongly. Thus, as of midnight, the contest remained too close to call. Clinton, however, claimed victory in her remarks. Obama, in a brilliant political move, also declared Clinton the Indiana winner in his NC victory speech. Thus, if Obama wins a narrow upset win in Indiana when the final votes are counted, it will appear all the more damaging to Clinton. Actually, an Obama win in Indiana would likely force Clinton to suspend her campaign by the end of this week. If Clinton scores a narrow victory -- which still seems more likely than not -- Obama will be on track to instead lock-up the nomination within the next 2-4 weeks. Stay tuned. Either way, Tuesday's results solidly confirmed that Obama will be the nominee. Look for the "unity ticket" calls to grow louder in coming days -- particularly from the Clinton backers -- as they try to pressure Obama to at least consider Clinton for his VP runningmate. P2008 - GOP. Here is a set of Tuesday election numbers you're not hearing discussed, but which seem significant. John McCain won the NC primary with 74% -- meaning that 26% of North Carolina Republicans showed up at the polls and voted against McCain. In Indiana, 22% of Republicans voted against McCain in the primary. Looks like McCain still has a ways to go to shore up his base for November. NORTH
CAROLINA. Here are the results of key down-ballot races from
Tuesday's primaries. GOVERNOR: Lieutenant Governor Bev
Perdue won the Democratic nomination over State Treasurer Richard
Moore, winning by a 55% to 41% vote. On the GOP side, Charlotte
Mayor Pat McCrory won the primary with 46%. INDIANA.
Here are the notable gubernatorial and congressional primary results.
GOVERNOR: Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and wealthy
architectural firm owner Jim Schellinger were locked in a virtual
tie nearly all night long as the Democratic primary results were
counted. Schellinger held a narrow lead at 50.4% with most votes
counted. A recount is possible. The winner will face vulnerable
Governor Mitch Daniels (R) in November. Race rating: Toss-Up.
CD-5: Congressman Dan Burton (R) survived an aggressive,
year-long challenge to defeat former Marion County Coroner John
McGoff by a 52% to 45% vote. Race rating: Safe GOP. CD-7:
Congressman Andre Carson (D), who was recently elected in a special
election to replace his late grandmother, won his crowded primary
race. Carson took 46%, versus 24% for former State Health Commissioner
Woody Myers, and 21% for State Representative David Orentlicher,
and 8% for State Representative Carolene Mays. State Representative
Jon Elrod (R) won his primary and will face Carson in a November
rematch of the special election. Race rating: DEM Favored. FINAL IN, NC DEM PREZ POLLS; NC & INDIANA PRIMARIES FOR GOVERNOR, CONGRESS. P2008
- DEMS. Since the NORTH
CAROLINA. Several other races are also on Tuesday's Presidential
primary ballot. GOVERNOR: Governor Mike Easley (D) is term-limited,
so both parties have competitive primaries to replace him. On
the Dem side, polls show Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue leading
State Treasurer INDIANA.
There are also gubernatorial and congressional primaries here
on Tuesday. GOVERNOR: Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson
appears to have a slight edge over architectural firm owner Jim
Schellinger in the Dem gubernatorial primary. Schellinger had
fallen far behind, but recent polls show him rapidly closing the
gap again. The winner will face vulnerable Governor Mitch Daniels
(R) in November. CONGRESS: While the ballot is filled with
US House races, only two primaries merit real attention. In CD-5,
Congressman Dan Burton appears likely to score a comfortable win
over former Marion County Coroner John McGoff. In CD-7, recently
elected Congressman Andre Carson (D) should be able to fend off
an aggressive and free-spending primary challenge from wealthy
former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers. State Representatives
David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays, plus four other Dems, are
also running. DEM SCORES UPSET PICKUP IN LOUISIANA CONGRESSIONAL SPECIAL ELECTION; OBAMA WINS GUAM BY 7-VOTE MARGIN; NEW NC, IN POLLS. LOUISIANA. State Senator Steve Scalise (R) easily won the CD-1 congressional seat left vacant by the election last year of Congressman Bobby Jindal as Governor. Scalise won 75% of the vote against three opponents in the special election run-off. The big news of the day, however, was the upset win of State Representative Don Cazayoux (D) in the CD-6 special election. Cazayoux defeated former State Representative and newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins (R) by a 49% to 46% vote, with three Independents capturing the remainder. The CD-6 seat had been in GOP hands for over 30 years. Cazayoux -- a self-proclaimed centrist "Blue Dog Democrat" -- won despite a heavy barrage of Republicans TV ads and mailings trying to equate Cazayoux with "liberal" Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama/Jeremiah Wright and House Speaker "Nancy Pelosi and her San Francisco values." The same NRCC message also failed to sway conservative voters in the Mississippi special election primary last month. P2008
- DEMS. Barack Obama narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton on
Saturday's Guam primary. Voters in Guam cast ballots for delegate
slates committed to a candidate. Delegates pledged to Obama won
2,264 votes, while Clinton's slate captured 2,257 votes. Obama's
seven vote victory -- a virtual tie -- means that Obama and Clinton
won two delegates apiece. There are also some new polls for Tuesday's
primary contests: GEORGIA.
Candidate filing closed in Georgia. Click here
to view the statewide and congressional candidate listings.
FORMER DNC CHAIR SWITCHES FROM CLINTON TO OBAMA; NEW IN, NC, OR POLLS. P2008
- DEMS. Former A SUPER(-DELEGATE) DAY; NC GOV & US SEN POLLS; A "MAY DAY" HISTORY LESSON. P2008 - DEMS. Several new superdelegate endorsements to announce. Three members of Congress -- Bruce Braley (D-IA), Lois Capps (D-CA) and Baron Hill (D-IN) -- endorsed Barack Obama. Congressman Ike Skelton (D-MO) and two non-elected official "supers" endorsed Hillary Clinton. The Wall Street Journal and The Politico both reported that nearly all of the 80+ uncommitted superdelegates remaining in Congress have actually picked sides and conveyed their future announcement plans to the respective campaigns. According to WSJ, a majority of the remaining superdelegates in Congress plan to endorse Obama. FYI: No new primary polls to report today. NORTH
CAROLINA. The
HAPPY MAY DAY. Today was the original International Labor
Day (or International Workers Day, depending upon the translation)
-- the date selected by the international trade union movement
in honor of the memory of Chicago's framed Haymarket
martyrs -- but the date of the formal Labor Day in the US
was later moved to the first weekend in September when May 1 become
associated too closely with the Labor Day celebration around the
globe by international socialists and communists. |
JOIN
THE POLITICS1
BLOG
ARCHIVE:
POLITICAL BLOG ROLL: KINDA
NEUTRAL: DEM/LEFT: GOP/RIGHT: OTHER: For those who would like to track Politics1 with a newsreader, we publish a RSS feed:
|
MISSISSIPPI.
Prentiss County Clerk Travis Childers (D) scored a major upset
victory in the congressional special election for the open CD-1
seat vacated by interim US Senator Roger Wicker (R). Although
the seat is solidly Republican in voting history, Childers defeated
Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) by a 54% to 46% vote. Republicans
unsuccessfully tried to nationalize the race, tying Childers to
Barack Obama and his controversial former minister Jeremiah Wright.
The NRCC, Davis' campaign, and a 527-group spent a combined total
of nearly $3 million on behalf of the GOP's failing effort in
this rural, conservative district. The White House also weighed
in, as Vice President Dick Cheney personally stumped in the district
for Davis. Childers and Davis will face-off again in a November
rematch. GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic
victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election
ahead for congressional Republicans.
NEBRASKA.
Tuesday is also a non-Presidential primary day in Nebraska. Former
Governor and former US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns is expected
to easily win the GOP primary for the open US Senate seat. Rancher
and '06 congressional nominee Scott Kleeb is favored to win the
Dem contest over wealthy businessman Tony Raimondo and two others.
Johanns is favored over Kleeb in the general election. There are
also primaries for both major parties in CD-2 and CD-3.
Barack
Obama scored the endorsements of more superdelegates throughout
the weekend -- so much so it is clear he will officially lock-up
the nomination by the end of the primary season. In fact, at this
pace, he may secure a sufficient number of delegates for the nomination
by the end of this month. Despite this, Clinton is expected to
easily win the West Virginia primary on Tuesday. "It's not
over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is," joked Clinton
at a campaign stop on Sunday. Obama is just 155 delegates shy
of winning the nomination as of Sunday evening.
Senator
Frank Lautenberg (D) declared his $2 million condo in DC as his
"permanent residence" until 2005 in order to claim a
valuable homestead property tax exemption in DC. Only after reporters
asked about it did he end the practice, according to a source.
Interestingly, Lautenberg's wife maintains a luxury apartment
at 555 Park Avenue in New York City were she is registered to
vote. Lautenberg is registered to vote at his NJ condo. The concierge
at Lautenberg's NJ condominium building in Bergen County told
our source that Lautenberg rarely visited the premises in the
last couple of years and only began using the apartment again
in the last couple of months. The concierge said that Lautenberg’s
office sends a staffer to pick up his mail each week. By the way,
Lautenberg also owns a $2 million ski chalet in Vail, Colorado.
Look for Congressman Rob Andrews's to make an issue of all this
in the primary, raising questions about the sincerity of Lautenberg's
commitment to New Jersey residents.
NEW
YORK. Congressman Vito Fossella (R) appears on the verge of
retirement -- something seemingly unthinkable a week ago -- after
his DUI arrest and subsequent admissions of fathering a child
during an extramartal affair. "I have had a relationship
with Laura Fay, with whom I have a three-year-old daughter. My
personal failings and imperfections have caused enormous pain
to the people I love and I am truly sorry. While I understand
that there will be many questions, including those about my political
future, making any political decisions right now are furthest
from my mind," said Fossella in a written statement on Thursday.
GOP insiders expect Fossella to shortly announce he will not seek
re-election to the CD-13 seat. If convicted on the DUI charge,
he faces a five-day mandatory minimum jail sentence. Fossella
is the only Republican currently representing a New York City
district.
the
nomination. Superdelegate and Virginia State Delegate Jennifer
McClellan unendorsed Clinton and switched to Obama. Other supers
endorsing Obama on Wednesday: Florida State House Minority Leader
Dan Gelber, North Carolina Democratic State Chair Jerry Meek,
and two DNC members. "I think that Senator Obama is going
to be a tremendous boost for down-ballot races in North Carolina.
He's going to turn out segments of the electorate -- particularly
young people and African-Americans -- who have historically low
turnout levels. That will help candidates up and down the ballot,"
said Meek to the AP. Clinton also picked up three superdelegates:
Congressmen Heath Shuler (D-NC) and Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and
a Texas labor union leader. While Clinton made a brief campaign
visit to West Virginia -- in large part to kill the rumors she
was on the verge of exiting the race -- her standard stump speech
eliminated all of her previous criticisms of Obama and now contained
a muted vow to remain in the race "until we have a nominee"
(versus her former "until the convention" pledge). Lawrence
O'Donnell reported that a senior Clinton strategist hinted Clinton
is planning to exit the White House race in mid-June. The insider
said the Democrats "will have a nominee by June 15."
The source emphasized to O'Donnell that Clinton will be "reasonable"
and make a "reality-based" decision in June about the
outcome of the race. Meanwhile, Obama took Wednesday off from
the campaign trail -- and his staff announced the candidate will
immediately start focusing on the general election by scheduling
a quick series of visits to key swing states.
State
Senator Fred Smith was second with 36%, and three others split
the remaining votes. Race rating: Leans DEM. US SENATE:
State Senator Kay Hagan -- the DSCC's candidate -- won the Democratic
nomination in a landslide, taking 60% against four opponents.
She will face US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) in November. Race
rating: GOP Favored. CD-3: Congressman Walter Jones Jr.
-- a vocal Iraq War opponent and Ron Paul ally -- scored a surprisingly
lopsided GOP primary win. The district is heavily dominated by
giant military bases, but Jones still won by a 60-40 vote. Race
rating: Safe GOP. CD-10: Congressman Pat McHenry (R) defeated
retired USAF officer Lance Sigmon by a 2-to-1 margin, despite
a weathering a very nasty attack campaign from the challenger
and a widespread whispering campaign that McHenry is gay. Race
rating: Safe GOP. CD-11: Asheville City Councilman Carl
Mumpower captured 48% in the three-way GOP contest for the right
to oppose freshman Congressman Heath Shuler (D) in November. Race
rating: DEM Favored.
Richard
Moore by several points. On the GOP side, initial frontrunner
Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has seen his advantage disappear.
State Senator Fred Smith has either tied or narrowly passed McCrory
in recent polls, although GOP insiders believe McCrory may be
a stronger candidate in November with better crossover appeal.
Three other Republicans are also running. US SENATE: Incumbent
Elizabeth Dole (R) will win her primary in a landslide. State
Senator Kay Hagan -- the DSCC's candidate -- is favored over investment
banker Jim Neal for the Democratic nomination. CD-3: Congressman
Walter Jones Jr. (R) is facing an aggressive primary challenge
from Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin. Jones -- a former
Iraq War supporter-turned-vocal critic -- was the only Congressman
to endorse Ron Paul for President. McLaughlin strongly supports
the Iraq War, which is helping him in this district heavily dominated
by giant military bases. This race could go either way. CD-10:
Congressman Patrick McHenry (R) is being challenged by retired
USAF officer Lance Sigmon. Sigmon argues McHenry is dishonest
and has "character" flaws, but the challenge really
seems to be grounded upon the ongoing whispering campaign that
McHenry may be a closeted gay man. Retired Congressman Cass Ballenger
(R) has endorsed Sigmon, but McHenry is still expected to win
by a comfortable margin. CD-11: Three Republicans are fighting
to win the right to oppose freshman Congressman Heath Shuler (D)
in November. Based upon fundraising to date, none of the Republicans
look to be particularly viable against Shuler.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Filing for Congress closed in 
latest
WTVD-TV/SurveyUSA poll gives us a good snapshot of next week's
primaries for US Senate and Governor. In the Dem primary for US
Senate, State Senator Kay Hagan leads investment banker Jim Neal
by a 38% to 17% vote, with all others in the low single-digits.
The winner will face US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) in November.
In the open gubernatorial race, both parties are seeing competitive
contests. The Democrats: Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue - 45%,
State Treasurer Richard Moore - 38%, Other - 2%. The Republicans:
Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory - 36%, State Senator Fred Smith -
32%, former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr - 7%, attorney Bill
Graham - 5%. Governor Mike Easley (D) is term-limited.
The
Presidency | P2008 Race | The
States | Calendar | Blog Archives
Political Parties | News
Links | Issues | Job Bank
| Issues | FAQ
Campaign Products & Services | Campaign
Buttons | Bookstore | About
Us | E-Mail
© 1997-2007 by Ron Gunzburger. All rights reserved.