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BLOG ARCHIVE: MAY 2005 TUESDAY
MEMORIAL
DAY OPEN THREAD.
I'm taking the holiday weekend off so it's your turn. SATURDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
OHIO: Some Buckeye State Republicans are rather
irate that FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
DC: Nuclear option averted -- and, even then,
it only would have applied to judicial nominees anyways -- US
Senate Democrats successfully filibustered the UN Ambassador
nomination of John Bolton on Thursday. The move postpones the
Bolton vote to sometime after the Memorial Day recess, buying
the Dems more time to sink the nomination. Republicans attempted
to invoke cloture to end the filibuster, but fell four votes
short. According to the New York Times, Senator John
Thune (R-SD) is allegedly told a fellow Senator he may vote
against Bolton "to send a message" of displeasure
to President Bush about the proposed closing of Ellsworth AFB
in South Dakota. NEW JERSEY: Doug Forrester
appears to be moving noticeably ahead in the GOP primary race
for Governor. According to the new WCAU-TV/SurveyUSA poll of
likely primary voters, Forrester is at 45%, Bret Schundler has
29%, and the five other Republicans had a combined total of
19%. P2008: According to various published
news reports, former NATO Commander Wes Clark (D-AR) and US
Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) are both moving towards establishing
campaign organizations for White House runs in 2008. No big
surprises in this news -- but, you gotta believe the Clintons
are starting to regret that they tacitly helped Clark in '04.
NEW YORK CITY: The Democratic primary race
for NYC Mayor is already narrowing. Former Bronx Borough President
Fernando Ferrer's once commanding lead is rapidly diminishing.
According to the new WABC-TV/SurveyUSA poll, Ferrer is backed
by 30% of Dem primary voters, Manhattan Borough President C.
Virginia Fields is at 23%, City Council Speaker Gifford Miller
is at 12%, and Congressman Anthony Weiner is at 10%. The primary
winner will face billionaire Mayor Mike Bloomberg (R) in November. THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
TENNESSEE: WEDESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
NY: Republicans may finally have their sacrificial
lamb opponent to US Senator Hillary Clinton (D) for next year.
No, we're not talking about Nixon son-in-law Ed Cox (R) -- who
wants to run, but clearly NY GOPers don't think the Nixon ties
will sell well in the Empire State. It seems they are focusing
their efforts on Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine
Pirro (R). Pirro announced this week she will not seek re-election
next year but instead will be a candidate next year for an unspecified
statewide office. Realistically, that narrows the options to
Attorney General or US Senate -- and most believe it is the
latter. TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
DC: The "nuclear option" was averted
in the MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
CALIFORNIA: Movie star and Democratic activist
Warren SATURDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
ALABAMA: FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
NEW JERSEY: There's a new Quinnipiac University
poll out on the GOP candidates for Governor in June 7 primary.
The poll shows that wealthy, former West Windsor Mayor Doug
Forrester leads former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler by a
vote of 39% to 33%. All of the other five Republicans in the
primary race scored in the low single digits. On the Dem side,
US Senator Jon Corzine is so far ahead of his little-known opponents
that they didn't even bother to poll the race. MASSACHUSETTS:
Congressman Mike Capuano (D) -- who previously said he would
not run for Governor in '06 -- now sounds like someone moving
towards entry into the race. "It's not in my plan, but
I think it's important to beat Mitt Romney, and I'm not convinced
the current crop can do it," he told the Boston Globe.
Capuano went out of his way to attack Attorney General Tom Reilly,
the current Dem frontrunner: "I'm not happy that [Reilly]
doesn't know whether he's for or against [gay marriage] ...
I think it's important you have an opinion. That's why Democrats
lose across the board. That was one of the problems with John
Kerry when he ran." THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
DC: Go figure, but it turns out Senate Majority
Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) had no problems with filibustering
judges back in 2000 -- when Bill Clinton was President and the
Republicans used the stalling tactic and other legislative tools
to block approximately 70 of his nominees. Now, for some odd
reason, Frist seems to hold the opposite opinion. Check out
Think
Progress, which reported the details. Meanwhile, the AP
reports that the bipartisan group of Senate centrists were unable
to reach a compromise to avoid the "nuclear option"
by guaranteeing floor votes on several of Bush's
blocked judicial nominees. WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
NEBRASKA: The Omaha World-Herald reported
that some of the state's leading Republicans would like to convince
TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
CALIFORNIA: Tuesday will mark the end of one
of the nastiest political campaigns in Los Angeles history --
and that says a lot. Polls show incumbent Mayor James Hahn trailing
former
SATURDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
ILLINOIS: In candidate recruitment news, Illinois
Republicans are trying to convince former Governor Jim Edgar
to make a comeback bid for his old job in '06. They unsuccessfully
tried that with him in the '04 US Senate race, too. "I'll
never say never, but that's still a long w FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
US Senator George Voinovich (R-OH) dealt a blow to the White
House Thursday by announcing that he would vote against the
nomination of UN Ambassador-designate John Bolton. "It
is my opinion that John Bolton is the poster child of what someone
in the diplomatic corps should not be," said Voinovich,
who vowed to work on convincing GOP colleagues to join him in
opposing Bolton. Because of Voinovich's stance, Senate Foreign
Relations Committee Chair Dick Lugar hashed out a compromise
with GOP committee members to agree to a vote to simply send
Bolton's nomination without any recommendation to the full Senate
for a floor vote. That proposal was approved by a 10-8 vote
that followed party lines. Other GOP centrists -- like Senators
Linc Chafee (R-RI) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) -- indicated in
recent days they plan to support Bolton, so it is unclear is
Dems will be able to gather enough votes to block the President's
nominee. In Washington State, the FBI has taken over the ongoing
investigation of embattled Spokane Mayor Jim West (R). West
denies he molested any boys, or had sex with anyone younger
than 18. THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
In New York, it appears that WEDNESDAY
OPEN THREAD.
I'm pretty busy at work today, so just another open thread. TUESDAY
WEEKEND
OPEN THREAD.
Your choice of topics, so have at it. FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
Still ill, but here's some news. ARIZONA: Former
Governor Fife Symington is the latest high-profile Republican
to take a pass on the '06 race against Governor Janet Napolitano
(D). To date, the only announced GOP candidate is a 25-year-old
college student. OHIO: In a surprise move,
it appears that Congressman Ted Strickland (D) will jump next
week into the open 2006 race for Governor. It is a turnabout
for the heavily-recruited Strickland, who had announced in January
that THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
I'm kinda out of it with the flu right now, so just an open
thread. But ... since I need to fill space today ... if you
guys really want to show your support for keeping Politics1
alive, I need your help to generate some revenue. If you're
involved with a campaign, cause or business -- hey, we're not
picky -- please consider placing a Blogad here on the site.
And, as this is the political off-season, our rates are really
reasonable these days. Only $75 for one week, $120 for two weeks,
$200 for a month or $450 for 3 months ... click
here for more info or to place your ad order! WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
P2008: Senator TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
New York: State Health Commissioner and former
US Surgeon General Antonia Novello (R) is considering jumping
into the race next year against Senator Hillary Clinton (D).
According to published reports, Novello is making calls and
meeting with conservative political leaders in the state. MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE. Some of the biggest political news this
weekend was about who ISN'T running for what next year. Vermont:
|
NEWS
UPDATE.
Not much in US political news from the Memorial Day weekend.
MARYLAND: Although the State GOP Chair is telling
everyone that Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R) is about
to announce his candidacy for the open US Senate race next year,
Steele was quick to tell reporters he has made no decision on
the race. NORTH CAROLINA: US Senator Elizabeth
Dole (R) sent out a new fundraising letter for her 2008 re-election
campaign, suggesting that former US Senator John Edwards (D)
is her likely opponent. Edwards' actions, however, look more
like someone seeking to make a second run for President in '08.
DC: The only other story of note involved Vice
President Dick Cheney's sharp denounciation of the new Amnesty
International report criticizing the US for serious human rights
violations in the treatment of prisoners of war at the Guantanamo
facility in Cuba. Cheney said that the freed prisoners who spoke
with Amnesty International were "peddling lies." And,
speaking of lies ... umm, "faulty intelligence" ...
maybe the VP can let us know how the search for WMDs in Iraq
(the initial justification for the war) is coming along.
US
Senator Mike DeWine (R) was one of those GOP Senators who crafted
the compromise responsible for killing Senate Majority Leader
Bill Frist's so-called "nuclear option" to eliminate
Senate filibusters of judicial nominees. So upset, in fact,
that some are reportedly trying to urge former US House Budget
Committee Chair John Kasich -- a ''00 Presidential candidate
-- to make a primary challenge to DeWine next year. DeWine's
stance could also have some negative fallout for his son, Pat
DeWine, who is a GOP candidate for Congress in the crowded June
14 special election primary. Junior has already made a point
of saying he thinks Dad was wrong for helping the Dems forge
the compromise -- but some conservative primary voters still
may seek revenge against Dad by voting against his kid. IOWA:
The Des Moines Cityview is reporting that Secretary
of State Chet Culver (D) may abandon his run for Governor and
instead seek re-election in 2006. Culver is apparently concerned
over recent independent polling numbers that show he could lose
the primary to a few of the Dems still looking at the race.
Look for either State Senate Minority Leader Mike Gronstal or
former Congressman 
Mike
Blouin -- two of those who apparently could topple Culver --
to enter the race soon. Gronstal and Blouin already have a publicly
announced agreement that only one of the two will run for Governor.
On the GOP side, Congressman Jim Nussle still looks strong for
the nomination. Governor Tom Vilsack (D) already announced he
would not seek a third term. MINNESOTA: A few
months ago, Dems were having trouble finding anyone to run against
Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) next year. Former State Representative
Bud Philbrook jumped into the race earlier this year, and State
Senator Steve Kelley announced his candidacy this week. Attorney
General Mike Hatch and multimillionaire attorney Mike Ciresi
both confirm that they, too, are interested in the race -- but
are not ready to make any decisions yet. In related news, former
State Finance Commissioner Peter Hutchinson -- who served under
Governor Jesse Ventura -- announced his candidacy for Governor
this week under the banner of Ventura's centrist Independence
Party. News articles occasionally mention Pawlenty as a longshot
candidate for the GOP Presidential nomination in '08. MONTANA:
And now there are two. Dems have succeeded in recruiting two
viable candidates into the race against US Senator Conrad Burns
(R). State Senate President Jon Tester (D) jumped in this week,
joining previously announced candidate State Auditor John Morrison
(D). Montana has become a very competitive swing state in recent
years, with the Dems capturing the governorship, three out of
the other four statewide elected positions, and narrow control
of the State Senate and the State House in 2004.
Despite
some tepid poll numbers last month, Congressman Harold Ford
Jr. (D) made it official on Wednesday when he filed federal
papers to seek the open US Senate seat. He starts with $1.5
million in his Senate campaign account, transferred from his
House re-election account. Ford, 35, is expected to have little
problem defeating State Senator Rosalind Kurita in the Dem primary.
Ford's big competition for the seat being left vacant by retiring
US Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) will be the eventual
winner of the hotly contested GOP primary. Former Congressman
Ed Bryant, wealthy former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker and former
Congressman Van Hilleary are the three leading Republican candidates.
Bryant was an unsuccessful US Senate candidate in 2002, and
Hilleary was the GOP nominee for Governor the same year. Corker
is positioning himself as a Howard Baker-style centrist candidate,
while the other two jockey for the "most conservative"
title. SOUTH CAROLINA: 
Freshman
US Senator Lindsey Graham (R) has long been friends with Senator
John McCain (R-AZ). Back in 2000, Graham was a vocal McCain
ally during the vitriolic SC Presidential primary. This week,
Graham was again by McCain's side as McCain helped broker a
compromise that preserved Senate filibusters and aborted the
Senate GOP Leadership's so-called "nuclear option."
The news didn't go over well for Graham back home. Multimillionaire
developer Thomas Ravenel is clearly posturing himself for a
GOP primary against Graham in 2008. "He’s the third
Senator from New York," said Ravenel this week about Graham.
Ravenel, who narrowly lost the open seat Senate primary last
year to Jim DeMint, is making it very clear he plans to take
on Graham on this issue. SC Republican Chair Katon Dawson didn't
come to Graham's defense either, telling newspapers that state
party HQ is being flooded with calls "and they’re
almost all against Lindsey." Here was Graham's response
to The State newspaper: "I will fight for the
conservative cause, because I believe in it [and] I will break
away when I think the country needs me to break away to find
a middle ground." A poll just last month showed that Graham
is the most popular elected official in the state. Ravenel isn't
worried about the numbers, though. "That's nothing a little
bit of money can't take care of," explained Ravenel. Still,
how angry will Republicans be in '08 about something that happened
three years ago?
Pirro
won't win, or even come close, but she is unlikely to inflict
major damage on the NY GOP. These days, that is seen as a victory
in and of itself. DC #1: By a 238-194 roll
call vote, the US House passed a bill to broaden stem cell research.
Those numbers fall far short of the 2/3 needed to withstand
a likely veto from President Bush -- if the bill passes in the
Senate. DC #2: The United Nations ambassadorship
nomination of John Bolton appears to be sinking. While the official
GOP party line is that Bolton should have no trouble winning
the at least 50 votes (plus the VP) needed for Senate confirmation,
reality seems to differ. US Senator George Voinovich (R-OH)
on Tuesday urged his colleagues to reject Bolton, whom he said
would be a "controversial and ineffective" UN Ambassador.
In a true surprise, a spokesman for US Senator John Thune (R-SD)
said on Tuesday that he was now undecided on Bolton's nomination
-- which also implies other usually party-line Republicans may
be getting ready to sink Bolton (or convince Bolton to withdraw).
CALIFORNIA: It's time to take the nascent gubernatorial
candidacy of State Controller Steve Westly (D) seriously. A
former top eBay executive, Westley just dropped a $10 million
personal check into his '06 campaign account. By writing himself
that check, Westly has now drawn nearly even in funds with State
Treasurer Phil Angelides (D), another 2006 candidate for Governor.
The winner of the Dem primary will face Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
(R) in the general.
US
Senate in the eleventh hour by a bipartisan group of 14 Senators
who were intent upon preserving the traditional of filibusters
and civil debate. Led by maverick Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
-- a likely '08 Presidential contender -- the fourteen all agreed
to vote for cloture to end filibusters and allow up-or-down
votes on three of President Bush's ten stalled judicial nominees.
The others will remain indefinitely stalled. Further, the group
agreed that judicial nominees would only be filibustered "under
extraordinary circumstances" in the future. The compromise
is already being viewed as a defeat for Senate Majority Leader
Bill Frist (R-TN) -- another Presidential hopeful -- and a victory
for McCain. The fourteen Senators who reached this deal were
McCain, Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), Susan Collins (R-ME), Mike DeWine
(R-OH), John Warner (R-VA), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Olympia Snowe
(R-ME), Robert C. Byrd (D-WV), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Dan Inouye
(D-HI), Joe Lieberman (D-CT), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Mark Pryor
(D-AR) and Ken Salazar (D-CO). NEW JERSEY:
A new Newark Star-Ledger poll indicates that US Senator
Jon Corzine (D) remains the prohibitive favorite to win the
open gubernatorial contest in November. According to the poll,
Corzine holds a 13-point over Doug Forrester (R) and a 20-point
lead over Bret Schundler (R) in head-to-head match-ups. Even
worse, 42% of likely GOP primary voters were unable to correctly
name a single one of the seven Republicans competing in next
month's primary contest. NEVADA: Congressman
Jim Gibbons (R) looks well on his way to winning the open gubernatorial
contest next year. According to a new Law Vegas Review-Journal
poll, Gibbons leads his nearest GOP primary challenger by a
60% to 13% vote. As for the general election, Gibbons leads
the various Dem hopefuls by margins ranging between 12-15%.
NORTH CAROLINA: Former State Democratic Chair
Lawrence Davis announced Monday that he was switching to the
Republican Party because "my [former] party was on the
wrong side of right-wrong issues" like abortion and gay
rights. Perhaps lingering resentment from his distant fourth
place finish -- just 12% -- in the 2002 Dem primary for the
open CD-12 congressional seat also played a role in the 67-year-old's
decision to bolt. P2008 #1: 
DNC
Chair Howard Dean repeated his prior assurances while appearing
on Meet the Press on Sunday that he will not run for
President in 2008. "I certainly won't do it in 2008. I
gave my word not to and I intend to keep that word," said
Dean. He also refused to handicap the '08 contenders: "That's
the one thing I don't comment on ... because I will have to
be the referee, so I've really just sworn off any speculation
on either side about Presidential politics in 2008." P2008
#2: the Arkansas News Bureau is reporting that former
minister and current Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is telling
friends he will seek the GOP nomination for President next time.
P2008 #3: Think of it as an Army of One ...
and 
Beatty
blasted Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) in a weekend commencement
speech at UC-Berkeley that left open the possibility he will
challenge the incumbent next year. He said he personally likes
Schwarzenegger but disagrees with his views and strongly dislikes
the way the Governor ridicules his opponents. Beatty has been
active in Democratic campaigns dating back to his friendships
with Presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy and George McGovern
over 30 years ago. Beatty also wrote, directed and starred in
the 1998 movie Bulworth, which excoriated the role
of special interest dollars in politics. DC:
We're approaching "one minute to midnight" -- for
those who remember the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' old 
Lieutenant
Governor Lucy Baxley (D) announced she will challenge Governor
Bob Riley (R) next year. Former Governor Don Siegelman (D) --
who remains that target of a state corruption investigation
for what he claims are politically-motivated allegations --
said earlier this month that he will also file papers to run
for his old job. Ousted State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy
Moore -- a Religious Right folk hero who likes to refer to himself
as the "Ten Commandments Judge" -- is also expected
to launch a GOP primary challenge to Riley. The incumbent has
been viewed as highly vulnerable ever since he backed a failed
plan to massively raise taxes during his first year in office.
RHODE ISLAND: US Senator Lincoln Chafee (R)
won the endorsement this week for his re-election campaign from
NARAL Pro-Choice America, the nation's leading pro-choice PAC.
The move is clearly a blow to any of his potential Dem challengers.
MASSACHUSETTS: Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey
(R) told the Boston Globe that she has no intention
of running against Congressman John Tierney (D) next year, despite
GOP attempts to recruit her into the race. Instead, the former
Republican State Chair said she will run for Governor if incumbent
Mitt Romney (R) decides against seeking a second term in 2006.
VERMONT: Dems in the Green Mountain State got
some good news Friday when Progressive Party founder Anthony
Pollina released a statement saying he was interested in running
for Lieutenant Governor next year. Pollina -- a prominent liberal
activist who regularly finishes in the double-digits whenever
he seeks statewide office -- would have seriously hurt Democratic
general election chances in the gubernatorial or open US House
race next year had he jumped into one of those contests. The
VT Progressives are closely allied with socialist Congressman
Bernie Sanders (Independent), the frontrunner for the open US
Senate seat. 
COLORADO:
A top state GOP official predicted this past weekend that recently
elected freshman US Senator Ken Salazar (D) would jump into
the open '06 race for Governor -- and then appoint his own successor
to his vacant Senate seat after winning. "It's a 'twofer'
for the Democrats," said State House Minority Leader Joe
Stengel (R). The state Dem chair said Salazar is "committed"
to his job in the Senate. Salazar's spokesman, however, said
Salazar is continuing to inject himself into state issues because
"the people of Colorado have come to expect Ken to be active
on all fronts on issues important to them." Not exactly
a disavowal of interest in the Guv race. CALIFORNIA:
Incumbent Los Angeles Mayor James Hahn lost his bid for re-election
on Tuesday to liberal former State Assembly Speaker and City
Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa by a landslide margin of 18%.
It was a very nasty fight, and Hahn is the first LA Mayor to
be denied a second term in over half a century. TEXAS:
US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) quickly shot down the rumors
that she could become our new Ambassador to Great Britain. "I
am absolutely not interested ... It's just crazy. It's totally
out of the realm of possibility," she told the Dallas
Morning News. Instead, KBH left open the door to a likely
primary challenge to Governor Rick Perry (R). The newspaper
reported that Hutchison said "unequivocally" that
her name will appear on Texas ballots next year -- but she wouldn't
say for which office. The latest move to head-off a Hutchison-Perry
primary are hints by Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
that KBH will be offered the #3 
leadership
post of Senate Republican Conference Chair after '06 if she
seeks re-election. DC: DNC Chair Howard Dean
is not backing down on his harsh weekend comments in Massachusetts
that US House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) should be jailed
for corruption. In fact, Dean is increasing the heat. "There's
corruption at the highest level of the Republican Party, and
... the law is closing in on Tom DeLay ... I think he's guilty
... of taking trips paid for by lobbyists, and of campaign-finance
violations during his manipulation of the Texas election process,"
said Dean during a visit to Arizona. BLOGOSPHERE.
Speaking of Dean, remember in January 2004 when the conservative
Club for Growth PAC ran effective anti-Dean TV spots in Iowa?
The biting spot said that Dean should take his "tax-hiking,
government-expanding, latte-drinking, sushi-eating, Volvo-driving,
New York Times-reading, Hollywood-loving, left-wing
freak show back to Vermont, where it belongs." Fast forward
sixteen months to this past weekend, when I got a note from
the Club for Growth's webmaster, letting me know that they've
added Politics1 -- published by this avowed Deaniac (although
I try to be generally respectful to all) -- to the group's 
Governor
Dave Heineman (R) to skip a looming 2006 renomination primary
fight against legendary former Cornhuskers football coach and
Congressman Tom Osborne and instead challenge US Senator Ben
Nelson (D) for re-election. The Governor's spokesman quickly
shot down the plan, saying that Heineman "would not be
interested" in switching races. DC: With
the help of President Bush, the RNC raised $15 million Tuesday
night at its annual spring gala dinner. NEW YORK:
According to a spokesperson, attorney and President Nixon son-in-law
Ed Cox (R) has decided to file paperwork to begin his '06 campaign
against US Senator Hillary Clinton (D). In other NY news, State
Assemblyman Pat Manning (R) -- who measures in at an astounding
6'11" -- appears to be positioning himself to jump into
the gubernatorial contest if Governor George Pataki (R) decides
not to seek a fourth term next year. MARYLAND:
The US Senate campaign of former Congressman and former NAACP
National President Kweisi Mfume (D) continues to face problems.
This week he acknowledged that, as the NAACP leader, he engaged
in a sexual affair with a female staffer -- something he now
describes as a "boneheaded thing to do." 
NORTH
CAROLINA: In the 2002-03 period, conservative Congressman
Walter Jones Jr. (R-NC) was a leading Hill proponent of the
Iraq War -- in fact, so much so that he was the guy who came
up with the goofy idea of renaming french fries into "freedom
fries" in the House cafeteria to protest France's opposition
to the war. "I wish it had never happened," says Jones
now about the food renaming. According to the Raleigh News
& Observer, the Religious Right incumbent -- who represents
a military district anchored by Camp Lejeune -- now also opposes
the war and thinks it was a terrible mistake. Today, he says
the US went to war "with no justification" and decorates
the hallway outside his office with pictures of young soldiers
who died in Iraq to remind him each day of the consequences.
"If we were given misinformation intentionally by people
in this administration, to commit the authority to send boys,
and in some instances girls, to go into Iraq, that is wrong.
Congress must be told the truth," demands Jones. Because
of his new views, the newspaper reported that Jones is now quite
out of favor with the White House: "Jones accepts that
his emotions cost him influence, but he insists he can live
with the consequences." MICHIGAN: National
GOP leaders are now trying to recruit Secretary of State Terri
Lynn Land to oppose US Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) next year.
One top Republican, however, clearly dislikes those efforts.
Attorney General Mike Cox (R) -- the only other statewide elected
Republican official -- has openly feuded with Land and is now
doing everything he can to scuttle the draft. In recent days,
Cox quickly endorsed minister Keith Butler's candidacy so that
he would be pledged to anyone-but-Land in case she decides to
enter the race.
State
Assembly Speaker and City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa by
margins in the double-digits. While both men in the non-partisan
run-off are Democrats, the challenger is definitely the more
liberal of the two contenders in this rematch of the 2001 run-off.
TEXAS: According to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram,
President Bush may have found a way to bring peace to his homestate's
GOP leadership. In order to avoid US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison's
(R) likely primary challenge to Governor Rick Perry (R), the
newspaper reports Bush may nominate Hutchison for the prestigious
post of US Ambassador to the Court of St. James (i.e., Great
Britain). If that happens, Perry will easily win renomination
and Texas Republicans will have an open US Senate seat next
year. DC: Senate Republicans appear to be heading
towards a showdown vote this week on the so-called "nuclear
option" of banning minority party fillibusters against
judicial nominees. The vote will liklely be close, with at least
one Dem voting (Ben Nelson of Nebraska) with the GOP leadership
and several Republicans likely to break with their leadership
to vote with the Dems (John McCain, John Warner, Susan Collins,
etc.). 
MONDAY
OPEN THREAD.
Why no new news stories? Because, candidly, I spent most of
the day on Sunday body surfing at the beach. We rarely have
any waves here and we had swells today of up to 3-4 feet (like
I said, we really don't get real waves here) so I spent the
day riding waves ... even had a bunch of 50+ foot runs. Translation:
I spent the day playing -- not working -- so I've got nothing
to write about here on Sunday night. Thus, you guys get to have
at it with your choice of topics.
ay
from saying yes," said Edgar. MASSACHUSETTS:
Republican leaders are trying to convince White House Chief
of Staff Andy Card to jump into the gubernatorial contest if
Governor Mitt Romney (R) quits his re-election race to focus
on a 2008 Presidential bid. Card lost a primary bid for Governor
in 1982, when he was then a State Representative. A new State
House News poll shows that Romney trails Dem frontrunner
Attorney General Tom Reilly by a 48% to 38% vote. The poll also
shows Reilly holding a 26-point lead over his nearest rival
in a likely primary matchup. OKLAHOMA: A group
of GOP state legislators are vowing to kill a bill giving public
libraries more money unless the libraries remove certain books
with homosexual themes.
INDIANA: Former Congressman Baron Hill (D)
said Friday that he will challenge freshman Congressman Mike
Sodrel (R), the man who narrowly ousted him last year. It will
be the third time they have faced-off since 2002. DC:
UN Ambassador-designate John Bolton's nomination may be in big
trouble if history is any guide. According to NBC, only three
Presidential nominees were confirmed by the Senate over the
past 20 years when they did not first win approval from a Senate
committee. P2008 NEWS: Term-limited Colorado
Governor Bill Owens (R) was once viewed as a hot prospect for
the next GOP White House nomination. That, of course, was before
the ongoing saga of his marital woes. Now Owens sounds like
someone who not only won't run for President in '08, but is
likely to leave the political world entirely. Owens told the
Rocky Mountain News that he is looking "outside
politics" for his future and added that it was "probably
a very safe assumption" that he will not be on the GOP
national ticket next time. 
GOP
cannot even import a gubernatorial challenger to take on Attorney
General Eliot Spitzer (D) next year. Former Massachusetts Governor
Bill Weld (R), who openly toyed with the race last month, said
in an internal memo to his business partners that he will not
run for any office next year. If Governor George Pataki (R)
fails to seek re-election to a fourth term in '06 -- as many
anticipate -- the NY Republicans appear to be without any significant
candidate. In Ohio, filing closed for the special election for
the CD-2 seat left vacant by Congressman Rob Portman (R), who
resigned to become the US Trade Representative in President
Bush's Cabinet. Eighteen candidates -- 12 Republicans and 6
Dems -- filed for the race. Hamilton County Commissioner Pat
DeWine (R) -- son of the US Senator Mike DeWine (R) -- is the
frontrunner for the seat. Former Congressman Bob McEwen (R)
and State Rep. Tom Brinkman (R) appear to be DeWine's closest
rivals. In NYC, it appears Mayor Mike Bloomberg (R) is back
from the dead. Polls as recent as a few months ago showed the
incumbent trailing former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer
-- the Dem primary frontrunner -- by double-digit margins.A
new Quinnipiac University poll, however, shows that Bloomberg
has bounced back into the lead over Ferrer by a 47% to 38% vote
-- signifying the first time ever that Bloomberg is leading
Ferrer. 
The
poll showed that Bloomberg led Manhattan Borough President C.
Virginia Fields (D) by just five points -- and led the other
Democratic hopefuls by margins ranging between 7-12%. In the
Dem primary, Fields trailed Ferrer by just 4 points, meaning
that she eliminated nearly all of the 26-point lead Ferrer held
just two months ago. In Washington State, the GOP challenge
to Governor Christine Gregoire's (D) narrow 129-vote victory
may finally be drawing to a close. According to the Seattle
Times, an analysis of the disputed ballots shows that Gregoire
would still have defeated State Senator Dino Rossi (R) using
any of the recount methodologies suggested by Rossi's attorneys.
In Vermont, a new Research 2000 poll shows that Congressman
Bernie Sanders (Independent) is highly likely to win the open
US Senate seat by a wide margin no matter which Republican opposes
him in 2006. According to the poll, Sanders would defeat either
wealthy businessman Richard Tarrant (R), Lieutenant Governor
Brian Dubie (R) or state National Guard Commander Martha Rainville
by landslide margins of 36% and up. In DC, United National Ambassador
nominee John Bolton's chances for winning Senate confirmation
appear improved. US Senator Linc Chafee (R-RI) now says he will
"reluctantly" vote for Bolton. Finally, former House
Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) is making a 3-day swing through
Iowa. Contrary to his comments earlier this year, Gingrich now
says he's "not ruling out" a 2008 White House run.
NEWS
UPDATE.
US Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) may not be as vulnerable as
many thought. The maverick GOP centrist posted some pretty decent
numbers in a new poll conducted for WPRI TV-12, Chafee holds
a 41% to 31% vote lead over former Attorney General Sheldon
Whitehouse (D). Chafee led Secretary of State Matt Brown (D)
by an even wider margin of 44% to 27%. The poll did not test
how Chafee performed against conservative Cranston Mayor Steve
Laffey, who is toying with making a GOP primary challenge to
the incumbent. In Florida, Attorney General Charlie Crist (R)
formally filed paperwork to run for Governor next year. Polling
shows Crist is the frontrunner for both the GOP nomination and
in the general election matchups. In Washington State, embattled
Spokane Mayor Jim West (R) is caught in the middle of growing
gay sex scandal. On Monday, his City Hall computers were seized
as part of the investigation. West, meanwhile, announced he
is going to take a leave of absence for "a few weeks."
In Colorado, State Treasurer Mike Coffman (R) -- a Marine Corps
Reserve officer -- announced that he will resign from his office
next month because he's being called up for a nine-month tour
of duty in Iraq. When he returns, Coffman implied he may run
for another office next year. When Missouri Governor Matt Blunt
(R), a Naval Reserve officer, was called up for duty two years
ago while serving as Secretary of State, Blunt merely took a
leave from his political office and returned when his active
duty tour ended. Finally -- some personal news -- we have two
new kittens in the house. They're just eight weeks old, arrived
here today, and the little guy in the photo on the right (as
yet unnamed) is already sitting in my lap as I write this posting.
MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
Former Congresswoman Karen Thurman -- defeated for re-election
in a nasty 2002 race -- began a political comeback this weekend,
as she was elected the new Florida Democratic Chair. Charismatic
outgoing State Dem Chair and former Tallahassee Mayor Scott
Maddox is expected to announce his candidacy for Governor within
the next few days. Maddox, the first state party chair (outside
of Vermont) to endorse Howard Dean for DNC Chair a few months
ago, appears to have the tacit support of Dean and many of the
Dean movement activists in the state. In Massachusetts, conservative
columnist Robert Novak reported over the weekend that Governor
Mitt Romney (R-MA) has recently held some meetings with GOP
leaders in DC. According to Novak, Romney let them know he is
likely to pass on an '06 re-election run in favor of making
an '08 run for President. If Romney bails on the Guv race, look
for the Dems to score an easy pickup on Beacon Hill. In Louisiana
CD-7, former Congressman Chris John (D) -- who lost a '04 race
for US Senate -- is considering a run to regain his old House
seat next year against freshman Congressman Charles Boustany
Jr. (R). "I am going to keep that option open," John
told Roll Call. If the conservative John jumps into
the race, it moves the CD-7 seat into the toss-up column.
he
would not enter the race. Senate Dems had tried to entice him
into the race against Senator Mike DeWine (R), but Strickland
confirmed Thursday that he would not enter that contest. The
move is also a blow to Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman (D), who
now faces a tough Guv primary. Strickland's move also makes
it more likely that controversial TV show host Jerry Springer
(D) will jump into the US Senate race as the lone Dem instead
of the contested gubernatorial primary. KANSAS:
Republican potential foes to Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D)
continue to drop like flies. Attorney General Phill Kline and
Congressman Jim Ryun both announced Thursday that neither of
them will oppose Sebelius next year. WASHINGTON: Spokane
Mayor 
Jim
West (R) -- an ardent gay rights opponent -- is now facing some
very damaging news reports. A Spokane Spokesman-Review
investigative report alleges that West as a sheriff's deputy
and Boy Scout leader molested two boys nearly 25 years ago.
Further, the newspaper disclosed that West was currently searching
for sex partners on the Gay.com website -- even going so far
as offer an undercover reporter posing as an 18-year-old guy
a City Hall internship and autographed sports memorabilia in
exchange for a possible hook-up. You can see West's Gay.com
profile 
George
Allen Jr. (R-VA) travelled to New Hampshire on Tuesday to hold
two campaign fundraisers. Officially billed as benefitting his
'06 re-election run, the visit is clearly intended to stir up
interest there in Allen's likely 2008 Presidential run. NRSC
Chair Allen -- a former Governor, former Congressman, and son
of the late Washington Redskins football coach -- is already
seen as an early frontrunner for the next White House race.
National Journal last week surveyed a large pool of
influential inside-the-Beltway political leaders from both parties
to ask which candidates they believed were most likely to win
the respective nominations for President. These political heavyweights
predicted that Allen is the current GOP favorite with 229 points,
followed closely by Senator John McCain at 217 points. Senate
Majority Leader Bill Frist was third (184 points), former NYC
Mayor Rudy Giuliani fourth (129) and Massachusetts Governor
Mitt Romney fifth (109). On the Dem side, Hillary Clinton was
the runaway favorite with 388 points. Former Senator John Edwards
was a distant second (192 points), Virginia Governor Mark Warner
was third (125 points), and Senators Evan Bayh and John Kerry
trailed further behind. THE STATES '06: FYI
-- if 'ya hadn't noticed lately -- we've been busy updating
the 2006 candidate listings on our 50 
P2008
- #1: Ever since former US Senator Zell Miller (D-GA)
endorsed President Bush for re-election last year, Republicans
love to tout Ol' Zell as their favorite Dem. While Miller's
new book certainly takes shots at his party, yet again, he also
wrote some surprising passages that may disappoint his new friends.
He wrote that Senator Clinton is "a warrior" who "will
position herself much closer to the middle than recent Hillary
watchers could have ever imagined ... This will be fascinating
to watch." He praised freshman Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
as an "impressive young man who has an unlimited future
ahead of him." Then, in an interview with the AP, Miller
added that "the 2008 race will be wide open. I don't think
you're going to find a Republican who can command the intense,
personal loyalty the Republican base had for George W. Bush
this last go-around." 
P2008
- #2: Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson expressed
his preferences for the next Presidential race. He called Senator
George Allen (R-VA) "a very attractive guy and could make
a tremendous President," described Senator Sam Brownback
(R-KS) as "a super guy," and called former NYC Mayor
Rudy Giuliani "a very good friend ... and I think he'd
make a good President." Surprisingly, Robertson took a
subtle shot at Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN): "A
wonderfully compassionate human being ... . I just don't see
him as a future President." It was also clear that -- even
though it has been five years since the two men clashed in the
SC primary -- Robertson still hates maverick Senator John McCain
(R-AZ): "I'd vote against [McCain] under any circumstance,"
said Robertson. P2008 - #3: New York Governor
George Pataki (R) was busy raising money in recent days at a
campaign fundraiser in California. But, as Pataki has yet to
indicate if he will seek any office in '06, it begs the questions
whether the money is intended for a re-election run or a White
House bid.
Centrist
Governor Jim Douglas (R) said "no" to White House
urging that he enter the open contest for the seat being vacated
next year by US Senator Jim Jeffords (I). Instead, Douglas will
seek re-election to a third term next year. With the Governor
taking a pass, the Republicans are now expected to see several
second-tier GOP candidates jump in. With Douglas out, Congressman
Bernie Sanders (I) -- an avowed socialist who caucuses with
the Dems -- is now the solid frontrunner for the Senate seat.
The Democratic Party is expected to openly support Sanders and
not field any significant candidate for the seat -- if the Progressive
Party, a sizable pro-Sanders group in the state, agrees not
to field any strong candidate for the open US House seat. Kansas:
Congressman Jerry Moran (R) announced over the weekend that
he will not run against incumbent Governor Kathleen Sebelius
(D) next year. The official reason: Moran said he and his wife
do no want to move to Topeka. Moran would have been the frontrunner
for the GOP nod, had he entered the race. The Kansas City
Star also reported that US Senator Sam Brownback (R) and
Congressman Todd Tiahrt (R) are indicacting they, too, will
pass on the gubernatorial race -- moving the race from the toss-up
column into the "Leans Dem" category. Nebraska
#1: Former Attorney General Don Stenberg (R) announced
he would run against US Senator Ben Nelson (D) next year. Nelson
defeated Stenberg in a competetive contest for the seat in 2000.
In a blow to Stenberg, US Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) -- who
had endorsed Stenberg very early in the '00 race -- 
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