EDWARDS
MAKES SURPRISE EXIT; REPUBLICANS DEBATE; NADER JUMPS IN; CONGRESSMAN
DAVIS RETIRES. EDWARDS: In an entirely unexpected
move, former US Senator John Edwards (D) quit the Presidential
race on Wednesday. Polls since Iowa had shown Edwards mired far
behind in third place, but he had until Wednesday vowed to continue
forward until the convention to advance his populist economic
message. In withdrawing from the race, Edwards endorsed neither
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Instead, he said he was simply
asking both to commit to dealing with the cause of ending poverty
in America. Edwards' senior advisor Joe Trippi told reporters
that both Clinton and Obama were "banging down the doors"
to win Edwards' endorsement. Although he did not yet make any
endorsement, pundits generally seem to believe Obama will be the
biggest beneficiary on Super Tuesday of Edwards' exit. Clinton
and Obama will debate Thursday night in what may be the most important
televised debate of the primary season. In other Dem news, US
Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) endorsed Clinton this week. P2008 - GOP: Just hours after Rudy Giuliani exited the
race and endorsed John McCain, the four remaining Republican contenders
participated in yet another televised debate. The shots -- if
any -- were largely between frontrunners McCain and Mitt Romney.
The body language and comments of the two men evinced the sharp
personal dislike they have for each other. Mike Huckabee and Ron
Paul were largely sideshows in the debate, and Huckabee complained
several times during the debate that he and Paul were somewhat
being ignored. As neither Romney nor McCain landed any knockout
blows -- despite several testy exchanges -- the debate seemed
to leave McCain standing as the leading GOP candidate heading
into February 5. In related news, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
(R) will endorse McCain on Thursday. Several prominent GOP elected
officials in other Super Tuesday states are also set to endorse
McCain over the next few days. NADER: Aging consumer activist Ralph
Nader -- the 1996 and 2000 Green Party nominee for President --
is back for a sixth run for President in 2008. On Wednesday he
filed paperwork to establish an Independent exploratory committee
for President. Nader, 73, also launched his new
campaign website. On his website, Nader vows he will take
on "corporate greed, corporate power, [and] corporate control."
While Nader may make another bid this year for the Green nomination,
the party is likely to reject Nader -- just as it did in 2004.
Former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney (Green-CA) -- who was formerly
a Georgia Democrat -- is viewed as the frontrunner for the Green
nomination. VIRGINIA: In a long-rumored move, Congressman Tom Davis
(R) announced he would not seek reelection this year."I think
you know inside yourself when it's time to do something else,"
said Davis. With Davis' departure, the NRCC now has 25 GOP open
seats in the US House to defend in November. While Davis did not
make any formal endorsement, he said the "best" candidate
to succeed him was businessman Keith Fimian (R). Fimian has raised
nearly $700,000 to date in his exploratory effort. Fairfax County
Council Chair Gerry Connolly and former Congresswoman Leslie Byrne
are the leading announced Dems for the seat. Based upon CD-11's
voting history in recent statewide and federal races, this open
seat must be rated as Leans DEM.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.31.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Your daily open thread.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.31.08 | Permalink
|
WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
McCAIN
WINS FLORIDA; RUDY TO ENDORSE McCAIN; LIEBERMAN SAYS NO INTEREST
IN McCAIN VP SPOT. P2008 - FLORIDA GOP: John McCain
scored a narrow but crucial victory over Mitt Romney in the Florida
GOP primary on Tuesday. The results: McCain - 36%, Romney - 31%,
Rudy Giuliani - 15%, Mike Huckabee - 13%, Ron Paul - 3%. The state,
in terms of delegates, was winner-take-all. McCain seemingly gained
ground in the closing days as Giuliani's campaign faded, as GOP
moderates shifted to McCain. Giuliani is expected to quit the
race Wednesday, especially after his election night speech in
which he frequently talked of his campaign in the past tense.
Giuliani plans to formally withdraw from the race and endorse
McCain on Wednesday in California. McCain's victorious campaign,
however, is largely broke. Romney by contrast has personal deep
pockets and can continue forward with the needed financial resources
without breaking a sweat. Further hampering Romney is the fact
that cash-strapped social conservative Huckabee has vowed to continue
his campaign into the February 5 contests. Some Romney strategists
believe Huckabee is now staying in the race solely to draw conservative
votes away from Romney -- in the hope that Huckabee would be selected
as McCain's VP runningmate. P2008 - FLORIDA DEMS: Although zero delegates were at stake
and the candidates all largely stuck to their pledge to avoid
campaigning in Florida -- to punish the state for breaking the
DNC's official schedule -- Hillary Clinton scored a big victory
in the beauty contest primary. The win was no surprise, as polls
from the outset showed Clinton holding leads in the 20-point range.
The Dem vote: Clinton - 51%, Barack Obama - 30%, John Edwards
- 16%. LIEBERMAN: US Senator Joe Lieberman (Independent Dem-CT)
is aggressively campaigning on behalf of John McCain -- but he
told the AP on Tuesday he does not want to run for VP on a fusion
ticket with McCain in November. "I'd tell him: 'Thanks, John,
I've been there. I've done that. You can find much better,'"
said Lieberman. He said he would likely attend the Republican
National Convention in September, but only if McCain will be the
nominee. However, Lieberman emphasized his activity on behalf
of McCain should not be mistakenly viewed as a sign he has any
interest in switching his affiliation to the Republican Party.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.30.08 | Permalink
|
SURPRISE
KY CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENT; ANOTHER POSSIBLE GOP HOUSE RETIREMENT. KENTUCKY: Tuesday saw a surprise retirement in the closing
moments of the candidate filing period in Kentucky. Congressman
Ron Lewis (R) withdrew his candidacy
papers with less than an hour to go before the filing deadline.
Instead -- in what was clearly a coordinated move -- Lewis Chief
of Staff Daniel London filed for the GOP nomination in CD-2. Then,
with just minutes remaining, State Senator Brett Guthrie (R) also
filed paperwork for the open seat. Expect a hot contest here,
as State Senator David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive
Reid Haire both filed as Democrats for the CD-2 seat. CD-2 Race
Rating: Toss-Up. In CD-3, four Republicans -- including former
Congresswoman Anne Northup and former pro-football player Chris
Thieneman -- filed to oppose freshman Congressman John Yarmuth
(D). CD-3 Race Rating: Leans DEM. In the US Senate race, eight
Democrats and one minor GOP challenger filed to run against Senator
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R). Race Rating: GOP Favored.
Click here to view all of the Kentucky candidate
filings. NEW YORK: I missed this item a few days ago in the footer
of a WHAM-TV story about Congressman Jim Walsh's (R) retirement.
In the story, the local station noted that -- like Walsh -- Congressman
Randy Kuhl (R) also won a very narrow victory in 2006. When asked
about Kuhl's plans for 2008, the Congressman's spokesperson oddly
responded that "he had not decided whether he would run for
reelection." Not exactly the response you'd expect from a
vulnerable incumbent. Kuhl is facing a rematch against retired
Naval officer Eric Massa (D).
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.30.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
I was really wrong last summer when John McCain's campaign was
broke and I thought he was politically dead in the Presidential
race. One top-level McCain advisor told
me last month that "the collapse was the best thing that
could have happened to McCain. [Campaign Manager] John Weaver
and his circle left the McCain campaign, which was a great thing,
because they had been pushing McCain much further right to make
him into another Bush. Weaver was trying to run the McCain campaign
with the same playbook he used for the the Bush 2004 campaign,
and that was a major mistake. It wasn't a good fit for McCain
and it showed. Weaver's departure allowed McCain to 'be McCain'
again."
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.30.08 | Permalink
|
TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
McCAIN,
ROMNEY FIGHT FOR FL WIN; RUDY TO QUIT THIS WEEK; FL DEM PRIMARY;
KEYES HINTS AT THIRD PARTY RUN. P2008 - FLORIDA GOP: Depending upon
the pollster you trust, either John McCain or Mitt Romney is leading
in Florida. Some polls show McCain leading, while others show
Romney narrowly ahead. Nearly all polls show the two men within
three-points of each other. Romney and McCain both took pointed
shots at each other throughout Monday while campaigning in the
state. Both men need a win in Florida to provide a major boost
in this GOP winner-take-all contest before heading into the February
5 states. One thing is clear: Rudy Giuliani is running a distant
third and will be forced to quit the race this week because of
his poor Florida finish. On Monday, Giuliani hinted to his media
entourage that these are his campaign's final days as he gave
each one gifts. Giuliani should have studied history better, as
John Lindsay was the last NYC Mayor to run for President (D-1972)
-- and he also mistakenly gambled on Florida to provide a needed
kick-start victory. As for Mike Huckabee, he's simply fighting
with Giuliani for third place. P2008 - FLORIDA DEMS: Hillary Clinton is expected to score
a sizable win in Tuesday's Florida Democratic primary, even though
no delegates are at stake. Polls have consistently shown Clinton
leading by a margin of around 20-points. The three major Democratic
candidates all agreed to abide by their earlier pledges to avoid
campaigning in Florida because the state broke with the DNC's
sanctioned primary schedule. Clinton, however, said in recent
days that she wants the DNC to lift the sanctions against the
state and reinstate the state's right to national convention delegates.
KENTUCKY: As first reported a week ago, former Congresswoman
Anne Northup (R) confirmed Monday she will file paperwork this
week to seek a rematch against freshman Congressman John Yarmuth
(D). Since losing for re-election, Northup lost a GOP primary
for Governor. Also keep in mind that John Kerry defeated President
Bush in this district four years ago. Race rating: Leans DEM. KEYES: Appearing as a guest on the obscure
Weekly
Filibuster blog radio show on Saturday, former Ambassador
Alan Keyes (R) attacked Mike Huckabee as "a liberal"
on funding issues, said John McCain was not a reliable conservative,
denounced Mitt Romney for "changing his positions as he goes
along," and said Ron Paul's foreign policy views were "crazy."
The most significant part of the online interview came at the
very end when Keyes was directly asked if he would consider making
an Independent or third party run for President in November. The
answer: "I think the people of this country deserve good
choices. If we are faced with a situation where neither the Democrats
nor the Republicans want to offer the people good choices consistent
with the moral premises of our liberty ... then I think somebody
is going to have to step forward and offer that choice. Would
I consider doing that? Sure I would. ... If, at the end of the
day, the Republican Party insists on going down the same road
of the Democrats and abandoning the declaration of principals
of American life, I think we will need a party that fights for
them and I will help to put it together." Translation: Look
for Keyes to soon make a bid for the Constitution Party's Presidential
nomination.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.29.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
What's your take on President Bush's final State of the Union
address?
(Also, FYI, as I hear this constant complaint about polling:
"I don't know anyone who has ever been polled!" Not
only has our household frequently been polled over the years,
but I was called by two different national pollsters on Monday
about the Florida Dem primary -- and was polled on the Prez race
by a third firm maybe three weeks ago. A lawyer I work with was
also called by a pollster on Monday.)
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.29.08 | Permalink
|
MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
McCAIN
SCORES FL ENDORSEMENTS; KENNEDY FAMILY FOR OBAMA; HILLARY BREAKS
FL "NO-CAMPAIGN" PLEDGE; WV FILING CLOSES. P2008 - FLORIDA GOP: John McCain received
a major boost in Florida over the weekend, winning the endorsement
of Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R). As Crist has sky-high approval
ratings in the state, the endorsement is big news. US Senator
Mel Martinez also endorsed McCain on Saturday, but the back-story
is more amusing. Martinez had originally agreed to endorse McCain
a week ago, then backed out hours before the scheduled announcement
due to pressure from some key Rudy Giuliani backers. Mitt Romney's
campaign said Martinez then assured them he would "remain
neutral" for the primary -- but then Martinez changed his
mind again and endorsed McCain. Romney, however, continues to
dominate the airwaves in the state with his heavy TV buys. One
spot, running on Spanish language TV stations, goes so far as
to describe Romney as "America's best businessman."
McCain has increased his TV buys in Florida -- a winner-take-all
state for the GOP -- while Giuliani's fading campaign runs ads
only infrequently. Huckabee is not on TV in Florida. THE KENNEDYS: Caroline Kennedy -- daughter of the late
President John F. Kennedy -- endorsed Barack Obama on Sunday in
a New York Times article she authored. "Over the years,
I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me
they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America
the way people did when my father
was President ... Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that
someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves,
to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together
we can do great things ... We have that kind of opportunity with
Senator Obama ... I have never had a President who inspired me
the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the
first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president
-- not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans,"
she wrote. Just a day after his niece's article was published,
US Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) will endorse Obama at a rally in
DC on Monday. Both Clinton and Obama had heavily courted Kennedy's
prized endorsement. The Politico reported that former President
Bill Clinton desperately called Kennedy over the weekend in a
failed effort to derail the endorsement. The Clintons had considered
Kennedy a close friend. NBC news reports it was purportedly President
Clinton's conduct over the past few weeks -- and the perceived
interjecting of race in the contest -- that so offended Kennedy
it pushed him from his neutral stance into a decision to endorse
Obama. Senator Kennedy's endorsement is possibly the single biggest
political endorsement any Democrat can land -- except for President
Clinton's endorsement. Congressman Xavier Becerra (D-CA), the
highest ranking Latino in the US House, also endorsed Obama over
the weekend. And -- yet another endorsement -- Kansas Governor
Kathleen Sebelius (D) will also announce her support of Obama
on Monday. In response to the slew of influential endorsements,
a Clinton spokesman tersely responded: "At the end of the
day, the voters are going to choose a candidate on their merits,
not on their endorsements." P2008 - FLORIDA DEMS: Hillary Clinton,
meanwhile, made a swing through Florida on Sunday, and will return
to the Sunshine State again for Tuesday's primary. The Sunday
stops were styled as fundraisers, but her airport arrivals were
choreographed to ensure it was clear to Florida TV news viewers
she was making stops in the state and speaking with the media
about the delegate controversy. Although no delegates are at stake
because of DNC sanctions -- and the Dem candidates had all previously
pledged to avoid campaigning in Florida during the primary --
Clinton told the AP she thought it was important to go to Florida
now to assure Democrats that "their voices are heard"
and she will support seating all of their delegates. "Hundreds
of thousands of people have already voted in Florida and I want
them to know I will be there to be part of what they have tried
to do to make sure their voices are heard," she added. By
contrast, Obama and Edwards say they both intend to keep their
pledges by avoiding campaign activity in Florida for the primary.
In related news, US Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) endorsed Clinton
last week. WEST VIRGINIA: The primary filing deadline closed on Saturday
evening with a major surprise. State Senator John Unger (D) --
the DCCC's recruited candidate in the CD-2 race against Congresswoman
Shelley Moore Capito (R) -- quit just hours before the filing
deadline without giving any explanation. Anne Barth (D), who was
US Senator Robert Byrd's State Director for the past two decades,
jumped into the void at the last minute at the urging of state
party leaders and the DCCC. Barth is seen as well politically
well-connected, as she also served as Byrd's campaign manager
for his last three re-election runs. Former South Charleston Mayor
Richie Robb and attorney Thornton Cooper are also seeking the
CD-2 Dem nomination. US Senator Jay Rockefeller (D) faces two
minor Dems in the primary, and former State Senator Jay Wolfe
(R) in the general election. Wolfe previously lost US Senate races
in 1988 and 2002. Governor Joe Manchin (D) faces nominal opposition
from State Delegate Mel Kessler (D) and former State Senator Russ
Weeks (R). CD-1 Congressman Alan Mollohan (D) is unopposed. CD-3
Congressman Nick Rahall (D) may have an opponent, as salesman
Marty Gearheart (R) told newspaper reporters his filing package
was postmarked and mailed to state officials before the filing
deadline. The Secretary of State's office had not received Gearheart's
package as of Saturday evening. Governor & US Senate race
ratings: Safe DEM. CD-2 race rating: GOP Favored.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.28.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Before everyone gets worked up -- again -- and flames me with
complaints
that today's posting is "too pro-Obama", then give me
any other way to spin Obama's landslide SC victory and Kennedy
endorsement duo. It just happened to be a good Obama weekend,
just as the week before was rather favorable for Clinton.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.28.08 | Permalink
|
SUNDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
OBAMA
WINS BY GIANT LANDSLIDE IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
After a week of bitter attacks and counter-attacks in the South
Carolina Democratic primary, Barack
Obama scored a surprisingly large 28-point landslide victory in
the state over Hillary Clinton. Clinton had held a double-digit
lead in South Carolina less than two months ago, so this outcome
indicates a significant shift in overall voter sentiments. The
vote seemed to be a sharp rejection of the Clinton campaign strategy
-- particularly using former President Bill Clinton as the attack
surrogate -- of interjecting race into their attacks. Even on
primary day, President Clinton did it again. He was asked a question
of whether he thought it was "fair" that he and Senator
Clinton were seemingly "double teaming" Obama in the
state. In response, President Clinton instead dismissively and
pointedly noted that Jesse Jackson won the state in 1984 and 1988
(translation: this Obama victory was just a black vote for a black
candidate in a black state). Overall, Obama captured 25% of the
white vote, with Clinton and Edwards dividing the rest of the
white vote. Exit polls showed it was younger white voters who
were most negatively impacted by the Clinton racial strategy,
as half of this entire demographic group voted for Obama. Clinton
and Obama nearly evenly split the bulk of the the white male vote
(all age groups combined), with Edwards capturing the remainder.
The SC results: Obama - 55%, Clinton - 27%, Edwards - 18%.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.27.08 | Permalink
|
SATURDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
SATURDAY
IS S.C. DEM PRIMARY; FL CONGRESSMAN RETIRES. SOUTH CAROLINA: Democrats cast primary ballots in South
Carolina on Saturday, following a rather nasty battle in the state
between the two frontrunners. Barack Obama remains the favorite
to win the state, although final polling shows his lead narrowing. FLORIDA: Congressman Dave Weldon (R) announced Friday he
will not seek re-election to a seventh time. Weldon last year
dispelled retirement rumors by announcing his plans to run again.
Now he said he had a change of heart. "It has never been
my intention to serve indefinitely. I always assumed that at some
point I would leave and would be able to go back to my practice
and have more time with my family ... This has been a tough decision
for me. I have very much enjoyed my service, but I need to do
what is best for my family now and be true to my heart’s
desire," explained Weldon, who said he will return to practicing
medicine in Florida. Four Republican state legislators confirmed
they were looking at the race. Two Democrats and a Libertarian
are already announced candidates for the seat. Weldon's CD-15
open seat must be rated as GOP Favored, as the district has a
strong Republican tilt.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.26.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Your daily open thread.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.26.08 | Permalink
|
FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
GOP'ERS
DEBATE; EDWARDS GAINS IN SC; KUCINICH QUITS; REP. WALSH RETIRES;
PUCKISH POLITICS LEFT AND RIGHT. P2008 - GOP: The remaining Republican
Presidential hopefuls debated in Florida on Thursday evening --
the twentieth GOP debate of the campaign. Contrasted with the
recent Democratic debate, the GOP candidates gingerly avoided
serious clashes nearly all evening. In related news, several independent
polls now confirm that Rudy Giuliani has plummeted into a distant
third place in Florida. Likewise, the polls now show Mitt Romney
either virtually tied with or now slightly leading John McCain
in the Sunshine State. FYI: As a Floridian, I'm seeing tons of
Romney TV spots on the air, versus just a small number of Giualiani
and McCain spots. P2008 - DEM: Yup, again. Thursday was another day of nasty
exchanges between the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama camps.
Both began airing new attack spots against each other in South
Carolina, only to voluntarily yank both off the air a few hours
later. The only winner in all of this appears to be John Edwards.
A new WCSC-TV/Survey USA poll shows Edwards rapidly gaining ground
in South Carolina, while Obama remains flat and Clinton is losing
support. The numbers: Obama - 45%, Clinton - 29%, Edwards - 22%.
Clinton is down 13-points since last week's poll, while Edwards
moved up eight-points. KUCINICH: Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D) -- during an
interview Thursday with the Cleveland Plain-Dealer -- abruptly
said he will formally withdraw from the White House race on Friday.
Kucinich scored in the low single-digits in the early contests.
The real reason for his quick exit: Kucinich suddenly finds himself
facing a very tough March 4 primary battle for renomination. Kucinich's
four primary challengers -- including Cleveland City Councilman
Joe Cimperman and North Olmstead Mayor Tom O'Grady -- say Kucinich
has neglected his district's needs due to his national ambitions.
"Right now I'm under attack by corporate interests, most
of them from the city of Cleveland, who have an agenda that has
nothing to do with the people of my community, nor with most people
in this country," wrote a defensive Kucinich this week in
an email to supporters. NEW YORK: Congressman Jim Walsh (R) announced Thursday
he will not seek re-election to an eleventh term. Walsh was facing
a tough rematch this year against former Congressional aide Dan
Maffei (D) for the CD-25 seat. John Kerry carried this swing district
in 2004. Walsh said his narrow 2006 victory "made me focus
on where I was in my career ... I have always said that politics
is not my life, it is just part of my life. And now, at the end
of this term of Congress, that part will be over. I just feel
like I did my part, I ran my part of the race. It’s up to
somebody else now." Walsh said he has "no idea"
what he will do next, but does not plan to ever run again for
office. Several GOP names are being mentioned as possible candidates.
With Walsh out, our race rating shifts from toss-up to: Leans
DEM. PUCKISH POLITICS - LEFT:Americans
United for Change -- a 527-group run by Democratic political
operative Brad Woodhouse -- has a cute stunt to tie the current
Congressional Republicans to President
Bush. This week the group distributed large pro-Bush campaign
buttons to all of the GOP legislators on Capitol Hill. In a tongue-in-cheek
letter accompanying the pins, Woodhouse wrote: "It is with
great pleasure that I am able to present you with this limited
edition 'I am a Bush Republican' commemorative button on the occasion
of President Bush’s final State of the Union Address. It would
be a shame to let this event pass without a show of solidarity
among those who have stood by him and enabled his legacy to be
established on so many issues. Without your steadfast support
of President Bush’s domestic, foreign and economic policies, there
is no doubt America would not be in the position it is in today.
Please wear this button on Monday evening to show your constituents
that you support President Bush, his policies and how proud you
are of your contribution to his legacy." PUCKISH POLITICS - RIGHT: A few days ago, infamous GOP
political operative Roger Stone launched his crudely-humored 527
group named Citizens
United Not Timid (mission statement: "educating the people
as to what Hillary Clinton is"). On Wednesday, David Bossie's
conservative Citizens
United group -- which runs TV ads and files lawsuits against
various liberal politicians and causes -- sent Stone's group a
letter demanding it immediately "cease and desist from the
[trademark] infringement." Further, they complained that
Stone's group "deliberately appropriated [Citizens United's
name] in order to capitalize on the release of the documentary
film Hillary The Movie." Stone was unimpressed by
the lawsuit threat: "This is why I hate conservatives. No
sense of humor." Stone, FYI, sees himself as a "libertarian
Nixonite" Republican. Stone's attorney quickly fired back
an amusing letter saying there was no "likelihood of confusion"
between Bossie's group and Stone's group, which "could only
be viewed by the public as a joke or at worst a parody."
As to the purported Hillary movie, Stone's lawyer dismissively
explained that "candidly, this is the first our client has
ever heard of such a movie." Finally, to twist the knife
in the wound, Stone's lawyer wrote there was no likelihood of
confusion because "your client Citizens United is somewhat
timid while my client Citizens United Not Timid is not timid and
therefore so named." Stone said he has no intention of shutting
down his group, which largely seems to exist to sell sexist, anti-Clinton
t-shirts.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.25.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Whatever.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.25.08 | Permalink
|
THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
DEMS
KEEP FEUDING; GOP MONEY WOES; HUCK SCALES DOWN; REP YOUNG RUNS
AGAIN; GORE ON GAY MARRIAGE. P2008 - DEMS: The Clinton-Obama
war of words continued, with yet more mud flying back and forth.
In some good news for Clinton, Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA) -- who
served as DNC Chair under President Clinton -- endorsed Hillary
Clinton on Wednesday. John Edwards, meanwhile, is hitting the
national TV shows with a message of being the only candidate who
remains focused on issues like poverty, health care and the ending
the war. Edwards simply has no reason to exit the race -- despite
however far out of first place he finishes in South Carolina --
so long as the fighting continues. Moving on to Florida -- a state
in which Hillary Clinton is expected to win on January 29 -- the
DNC's sanctions against Florida Democrats seem to having no impact
on voters. "For Democrats, the number of returned absentee
ballots in Florida so far exceeds the total number turned in in
the 2004 general election, and the number of Democratic early
voters plus the number of absentees requested is more than the
number of actual voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada combined,"
reported Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic. P2008 - GOP: Congressman Duncan
Hunter (R-CA) -- who last weekend ended his Presidential race
after lackluster performances -- endorsed Mike Huckabee on Wednesday.
Huckabee, meanwhile, has largely withdrawn from the Florida contest
due to a lack of financial resources. He canceled all media buys
in the state and is curtailing campaign events in Florida. Huckabee
already is starting to sound like someone expecting to soon be
eliminated. "If the campaign doesn’t make it all the
way, we want to walk away completely in the black," said
Huckabee to the New York Times. Retired Army General Norm
Schwarzkopf endorsed John McCain on Wednesday. McCain, however,
is also apparently cash strapped, as he flew to New York on Wednesday
for a fundraiser expected to raise roughly a million dollars.
McCain has almost no money left for February 5 media buys. By
contrast, Mitt Romney has the ability to continue self-funding
his campaign in an effort to simply outlast -- at least, financially
-- all of his rivals during what now may be a prolonged primary
season. US Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) -- a former Fred Thompson
backer -- endorsed Romney on Wednesday. New independent Florida
polling shows Romney moving into a close second behind McCain,
with Rudy Giuliani slipping into third. A third place finish for
Giuliani in the Sunshine State would end his campaign. FLORIDA: Congressman Bill Young (R), 77, ended speculation
about his future this week by announcing his intention to seek
re-election this year to a 20th term. Dems hope to win the CD-10
swing district seat when it comes open. However, with Young running
again, "it now looks unlikely that any politically experienced
Democrat will enter the race, making Young yet again the heavy
favorite for reelection," reported The Hill. GORE
ON GAY MARRIAGE: Yeah, I know he's not running for President,
but ... former Vice President Al Gore (D) weighed in on the gay
marriage debate this week with a statement recorded for the Current.com
cable TV channel. "I think that gay men and women ought to
have the same rights as heterosexual men and women, to make contracts,
to have hospital visiting rights, to join together in marriage.
And I don’t understand why it is considered by some people
to be a threat to heterosexual marriage to allow it by gays and
lesbians. Shouldn’t we be promoting that kind of faithfulness
and loyalty to one’s partner regardless of sexual orientation,"
said Gore.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.24.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Any suggestions on how we should use our Politics1
group on Facebook? (Feel free to also add
me to your Facebook friends list, too ... but I'm not going
to play WereWolves, Vampires, Zombies, Snowball Fight, etc.).
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.24.08 | Permalink
|
WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
DEM
SNIPING CONTINUES; THOMPSON QUITS; GOV BLUNT SHOCKER; FLORIDA'S
"SPINE OF JELLO"; ... AND A "TOLD 'YA SO!" P2008: Tuesday was yet another day filled with verbal attacks
lobbed back and forth between
the Clinton and Obama campaigns. Obama continues stumping in South
Carolina, and on Tuesday won the endorsement of The State,
SC's largest newspaper. Senator Clinton, meanwhile, left the Palmetto
State to instead campaign in the February 5 primary states --
leaving spouse Bill Clinton as her surrogate in South Carolina.
Most pundits believe the strategic move is intended to largely
cede the state to Obama and downplay media expectations for Saturday.
Meanwhile, John Edwards weighed-in with a near-endorsement on
Tuesday from Martin Luther King III. "I urge you: keep going.
Ignore the pundits, who think this is a horserace, not a fight
for justice. My dad was a fighter. As a friend and a believer
in my father’s words that injustice anywhere is a threat
to justice everywhere, I say to you: keep going. Keep fighting.
My father would be proud," wrote King. Edwards has made ending
poverty in America his top campaign issue. THOMPSON: Former US Senator and actor Fred Thompson (R)
withdrew from the Presidential race on Tuesday, following his
third place finish in the South Carolina primary. Thompson's third
place finishes in Iowa and South Carolina sounded the death knell
of his campaign. Amusingly, Thompson let reporters know he was
prepared to withdraw after Iowa and endorse John McCain if he
finished worse than third -- but he narrowly squeaked into third
there, so was forced to keep going for two more weeks. While Thompson
didn't make an immediate endorsement, most expect him to endorse
his friend McCain sometime before the Florida primary next Tuesday. MISSOURI: In a major surprise, Governor
Matt Blunt (R) unexpectedly announced Tuesday he will not seek
re-election to a second term this year. Recent polls showed him
trailing Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) in the gubernatorial race.
Blunt was also facing a possible GOP primary from State Treasurer
Sarah Steelman. Blunt -- who had already raised several million
dollars for his '08 campaign -- said he decided not to run against
because he had already "achieved virtually everything I set
out to accomplish, and more ... Because I feel we have changed
what I wanted to change in the first term, there is not the same
sense of mission for a second." Blunt had given no indication,
including in last week's State of the State Address, that this
move was coming. House Speaker Rod Jetton (R) told the St.
Louis Post-Dispatch that legislators on both sides of the
aisle were "shocked ... [and] just speechless" over
the news. Possible GOP candidates for Governor now include Steelman,
Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, Congressman Kenny Hulshof and
former US Senator Jim Talent. FLORIDA: US Senator Mel Martinez (R) -- the recent Republican
National Chair -- was all set to endorse John McCain on Tuesday.
Then, after Martinez and McCain staffers had coordinated the announcement
details, Martinez backed out of his promised endorsement just
a day before the planned event. Purportedly, several individuals
who had helped Martinez raise funds in his '04 Senate race --
and who are now involved with Rudy Giuliani's campaign -- pressured
Martinez into backing-out of his promised endorsement. "Martinez
has a spine of jello," one McCain advisor griped to Politics1,
after confirming this chronology of events. STONE'S 527: Told 'ya so! Politics1 reported
on December 6 that a rather crudely-humored 527 group named
Citizens
United Not Timid would soon be formed with the mission statement
of educating "the people as to what Hillary Clinton is."
In response, all of you cried "B.S.!" Well, it turns
out I knew what I was writing about six weeks ago. As is now being
widely reported this week, infamous Nixonite dirty trickster and
former Lee Atwater business partner Roger
Stone now openly acknowledges he put together the group. Frankly,
it all appears to be done as a frat boy-style dirty joke by Stone
to sell lots of t-shirts with the group's controversial logo ...
but the group really exists. FYI: Stone and I are planning
to co-author a newspaper political column here in South Florida
with our sharply contrasting left/right perspectives (note: Stone,
I'm proud to say, jokingly refers to me as "a pinko").
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.23.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Hmm ... so Fred Thompson quit the Presidential race. Politics1
wonders how anyone will be able to tell.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.23.08 | Permalink
|
TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
DEMS
HOLD FEISTY DEBATE; GOOD NEWS FOR SESTAK; DOOLITTLE SEAT UPDATE. P2008: The Presidential
candidates of both major parties toned down the harsh campaign
rhetoric on Martin Luther King Day, at least until the sun set.
Then the gloves came off for the Dems in their South Carolina
debate. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama heatedly attacked each
other several times on their respective recent comments and records.
Clearly, the two dislike each other and the resentment surfaced
at times. The tone turned somewhat more polite during the second
portion of the debate, when the candidates were seated next to
each other for more informal exchanges. Tonight's winner: Call
it a Clinton-Obama tie, although it was one of Obama's strongest
debates to date. Recent polling shows Obama holding a solid lead
in South Carolina, while Clinton has a massive lead in Florida. PENNSYLVANIA: Freshman Congressman Joe Sestak (D) got some
good news last week when the Delaware County Republicans were
only able to recruit a second-tier challenger. Sestak defeated
veteran GOP Congressman Curt Weldon (R) in 2006, after Weldon
became implicated in a federal corruption scandal during the closing
days of the race. The Republicans endorsed Gulf War veteran and
Assistant US Attorney Craig Williams -- who resigned his job to
run -- to oppose Sestak this year. Williams won the endorsement
without opposition, after stressing his opposition to setting
any fixed US troop withdrawal timeline for Iraq. "That's
defeatist talk ... This war is turning around," Williams
told the GOP gathering. Sestak -- a retired Navy Admiral -- had
over $1.7 million in the bank as of the end of 2007. Williams
has almost no name recognition and few personal resources to finance
his campaign, making him a longshot in the contest. Race rating:
DEM Favored. CALIFORNIA: With Congressman John Doolittle (R) now retiring
-- a major target of a federal corruption probe -- the CD-4 Republican
field is rapidly changing. State Assemblyman Ted Gaines quit the
race the day after Doolittle announced his retirement plans, in
the wake of news that conservative former State Senator Rico Oller
was jumping in. Former Auburn Mayor Mike Holmes exited the race
on Friday, saying he had only been running to give GOP voters
an alternative to Doolittle. Two previously announced Doolittle
primary challengers appear to be staying in the race: Iraq War
veteran Eric Egland and Ron Paul campaign activist Theodore Terbolizard.
Former CD-3 Congressman Doug Ose, a multimillionare businessman
and GOP centrist, is also expected to soon enter the race. Ose
was briefly a candidate for US Senate in 2004 before deciding
to instead retire from Congress. The winner of the GOP primary
will face retired USAF officer Charlie Brown (D), who nearly defeated
Doolittle in 2006. Race rating: GOP Favored.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.22.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Politics, football ... your thread for whatever else is on your
mind.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.22.08 | Permalink
|
SUNDAY/MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
ROMNEY,
CLINTON WIN IN NEVADA; McCAIN WINS SOUTH CAROLINA; HUNTER QUITS
RACE. SOUTH CAROLINA: John McCain
won a crucial victory Saturday in South Carolina, the state that
derailed his 2000 White House run. While McCain captured less
votes than he did eight years ago, his opposition this time was
much more fragmented. The numbers: McCain - 33%, Mike Huckabee
- 30%, Fred Thompson - 16%, Mitt Romney - 15%, Ron Paul - 4%,
Rudy Giualiani - 2%, Duncan Hunter - 0%. Huckabee needed a win
in South Carolina to prove he had significant support to remain
one of the "real" frontrunners. Instead, it is McCain
and Romney who emerge from the Saturday contests as the two national
leaders of the GOP pack. Huckabee holds the third spot nationally,
followed by Thompson. If Huckabee was unable to win in South Carolina
-- a state with a large number of Religious Right voters -- it
raises serious questions about his electability in the upcoming
contests. Giuliani, who is focused on Florida, has yet to prove
himself as a factor in any of the early contests. As
for Thompson, it is unclear from his election night remarks whether
he intends to continue running or exit the race, as the vague
hints simply held open the door to either option. Either way,
Thompson's future is a win/win for McCain. If Thompson exits,
he's already told reporters he will endorse his friend McCain.
If Thompson stays, he'll continue to help McCain by attacking
Huckabee on his gubernatorial record and siphon away Evangelical
conservative votes Huckabee needs. Romney's fourth place finish
did not inflict any real damage, as he had stopped campaigning
in the state several days ago to focus instead on the Nevada caucuses.
The SC Dem primary is January 26. NEVADA: On the Democratic side, Hillary
Clinton's support from the state's Democratic establishment, state
teacher's union, women, and Hispanic voters propelled Hillary
Clinton to a victory in the popular vote in the Nevada caucuses
Saturday. Barack Obama -- although outvoted by a 51% to 45% margin
-- also could claim victory, as he won 13 delegates to Clinton's
12. The reason the delegate totals did not match the popular vote
is because the caucus popular vote is weighted to ensure each
Congressional district receives the same number of convention
delegates, and Obama won big in the rural parts of the state,
while the two split the urban areas. Still, in both votes and
headlines, it is Clinton who is the winner -- and it makes her
the first Dem candidate to win two consecutive contests. The big
loser of the day was John Edwards, who put considerable resources
and time into Nevada, and only a week ago claimed the contest
was a virtual three way tie. Edwards captured only 4% of the vote.
While Edwards will continue forward, odds of an Edwards victory
in any of the remaining contests are very slim. On the GOP side,
Mitt Romney scored a big win, although he did not face much organized
opposition. Only Romney, Ron Paul and Duncan
Hunter made significant efforts in the state -- a move which paid
off for Romney. The numbers: Romney - 51%, Paul - 14%, McCain
- 13%, Huckabee and Thompson tied with 8% each, Giuliani - 4%,
and Hunter - 2%. The GOP race now moves on the Florida on January
29, while the Dem contest next moves to South Carolina on January
26. HUNTER: Following a dismal performances in the two contests
on Saturday, Congressman Duncan Hunter (R) ended his Presidential
run. "I ran the campaign exactly the way I wanted to, and
at this point not being able to gain traction in conservative
states of Nevada and South Carolina, it's time to allow our volunteers
and supporters to focus on the campaigns that remain viable,"
said Hunter. He had previously announced he would not seek re-election
this year to a 15th term in the US House. Hunter's son -- an Iraq
War veteran -- is currently a leading candidate to replace Hunter
in the House.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.20.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Another MLK weekend open thread.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.20.08 | Permalink
|
SATURDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
SATURDAY
IS S.C. GOP PRIMARY & NEVADA CAUCUS DAY. SOUTH CAROLINA: Once again, final pre-primary polls are
causing more confusion than clarity. Reuters/Zogby gives John
McCain a 7% lead over Mike Huckabee, with Mitt Romney third
and Fred Thompson fourth. SurveyUSA places McCain 4% ahead of
Huckabee, with Thompson and Romney tied for third. ARG says Huckabee
leads McCain by 7%, with Thompson third and Romney fourth. Zogby
claims Romney is "closing in" on the leaders, but ARG
says Romney's support in the state is rapidly plunging. As with
most recent South Carolina primaries, dirty tricks abound with
various anonymous slams -- some outright false -- aimed at McCain,
Huckabee and Romney. McCain and Huckabee would both like wins
here to boost their chances heading into the Florida primary on
January 29. That is probably why Huckabee has gone out of his
way for the past two days to repeatedly offer thinly coded support
for returning the controversial Confederate battle flag to the
top of the State Capitol dome. For Thompson, the state is make-or-break
for him -- and right now it doesn't look good. Thompson skipped
the NH primary to focus on this state. The SC Dem primary is January
26. NEVADA: Let's address the Republican contest first, as
it is easy to handicap. Only two Republicans made serious campaign
efforts in the state: Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Paul on Friday
issued a statement calling on the Nevada Republican Party to postpone
Saturday's caucuses due to "multiple inconsistencies"
in the caucus rules. Romney -- who has been stumping in Nevada
since Thursday -- will easily win the Nevada GOP Caucuses. The
Democratic contest is much more difficult to predict, as all polling
data for a first-time caucus in the state -- regardless of pollster
-- should be discounted as highly unreliable. The fight between
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is fairly evenly matched, and
either could win. The state's Democratic establishment is solidly
behind Clinton, while the state's most powerful labor unions are
aligned with Obama. John Edwards has also been running strong
here, and a Nevada win appears to be critical to his campaign.
Bottom line: if Edwards cannot win in Nevada, where he has organized
and advertisedextensively, he is unlikely to win anywhere else.
Without a win, Edwards' campaign is dead -- no matter how long
he continues beyond Saturday. However, Edwards' national convention
delegates, even if he places third in all remaining contests,
may well become essential to either Obama or Clinton to clinch
the nomination.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.19.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Enjoy the MLK long weekend.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.19.08 | Permalink
|
FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Sorry, but I'm taking a night off. I'll be back on Saturday for
the Nevada Dem caucuses and South Carolina GOP primary. So, for
today, feel free to debate the respective Presidential contests
and various claimants to the title of frontrunner.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.18.08 | Permalink
|
THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
COBURN
BACKS McCAIN; ROVE HANDICAPS DEM FIELD; NORTHUP MAY SEEK REMATCH;
EX-GOP CONGRESSMAN INDICTED FOR TERRORISM TIES. P2008 - GOP: US Senator
Tom Coburn (R-OK) endorsed
John McCain on Wednesday. Also, the Michigan Republican Party
accidentally issued a press release Tuesday night congratulating
McCain on winning the Michigan primary -- although Mitt Romney
defeated McCain there by a 9-point margin. A party spokesman later
explained he had prepared versions in advance for both a Romney
win and for a McCain win -- but the wrong one was sent to the
media. P2008 -DEM: The Las Vegas Review-Journal -- the
more conservative of the two Las Vegas newspapers -- endorsed
Barack Obama on Wednesday. CNN reported on former White House
Political Director Karl Rove's handicapping of the Dem Presidential
race. Speaking about Hillary Clinton capturing 55% of the vote
against "Unopposed" in this week's Michigan primary,
Rove said: "Think about that. She’s running against
‘Nobody’ and ‘Nobody’ gets 40% of the
vote. The other 5% of the vote went to three other people: 27,924
votes went to the guy who believes in UFOs, the guy who dropped-out
and the guy who last held public office somewhere around 1855."
Rove also took a shot at Obama, noting that Obama has a voting
record "more liberal [than Clinton’s] -- and that’s
hard to do.” KENTUCKY: Former State
Cabinet Secretary Erwin Roberts (R) -- the NRCC's highly-touted
candidate against freshman Congressman John Yarmuth (D) -- placed
his campaign "on hold" on Wednesday. Roberts released
a statement on his campaign website saying he had just received
an Army Reserve notice he was being called to active duty for
12 months. "I took an oath to serve and it is an honor to
serve my country in the US Army Reserves. Although there will
be sacrifices to make, when called, I will gladly serve ... As
with all Reservists who receive notice of a call to active duty,
my main focus is on my family and preparing to serve," said
Roberts. In his statement, Roberts said his campaign "will
be on hold pending further notice regarding [the] call to active
duty." With the January 30 filing deadline looming, Congressional
Quarterly reports that former Congresswoman Anne Northup (R)
may agree to be a last-minute entrant into the race. Northup was
defeated by Yarmuth in a 2006 upset, then lost the GOP primary
for Governor last year. SCANDAL: Former Congressman Mark Siljander (R-MI) -- who
served in the US House from 1981-87 -- was indicted on federal
charges Wednesday as allegedly being part of a terrorist fundraising
ring that sent over $130,000 to an al-Qaeda and Taliban supporter
who threatened US and international troops in Afghanistan. The
indictment claims the Islamic American Relief Agency paid Siljander
$50,000 for the lobbying work -- money that was purportedly stolen
from the US Agency for International Development. IARA reportedly
was a front for infamous Afghan warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, whom
the US has labeled a "global terrorist." Siljander,
an outspoken Religious Right politico, was defeated for renomination
in 1986. He last made an attempt to win a congressional seat during
a 1992 GOP primary in Virginia. Since then Siljander has worked
as a DC lobbyist.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.17.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Nope, no editorializing from me today.
Oh -- and on the topic of single versus multiple threads -- I'm
going to test a return of multiple daily threads on-and-off a
few more times and see how it goes.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.17.08 | Permalink
|
WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
ROMNEY
WINS BIG IN MICHIGAN; HUCKABEE WANTS CONSTITUTION AMENDED TO "GOD'S
STANDARDS"; DEMS DEBATE; CONGRESSMAN BAKER RESIGNS. P2008 - GOP: Voters in Michigan
breathed new life into Mitt Romney's campaign on Tuesday, solidly
restoring him to the first tier of national frontrunners for the
nomination. John McCain made a strong push, hoping the solid support
of Independents could help him win the state he won in the 2000.
Unfortunately for McCain, significantly less Independents voted
in this week than eight years ago. Coupled with that, Romney's
mesage of having the business acumen needed to restore our lagging
economy resonated well with Republicans. The results: Romney -
39%, McCain - 30%, Mike Huckabee - 16%, Ron Paul - 6%, Fred Thompson
- 4%, Rudy Giuliani - 3%. Watch for Romney to largely skip the
McCain-Huckabee-Thompson fight in South Carolina to instead focus
on battling for a strong finish in Florida on January 29. Recent
Florida polling shows a virtual four-way tie in the state between
McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney. In related news, Huckabee
made a rather controversial statement Monday evening in Michigan
when he said what "we need to do is to amend the Constitution
so it's in God's standards, rather than try to change God's standards"
A Huckabee spokesman said the candidate may have been using broad
terms, but was referring to amendments banning abortion and same-sex
marriage. P2008 -DEM: The top three Democratic contenders -- Hillary
Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards -- faced off in a very
genteel debate Tuesday evening in Nevada. The only combativeness
came from excluded candidate Dennis Kucinich, who unsuccessfully
sued MSNBC to force his exclusion. Less than an hour before the
start of the debate, the Nevada Supreme Court ruled against Kucinich.
Meanwhile, in Michigan, Clinton defeated -- well -- nobody in
the Michigan primary. In the lightly attended contest, she captured
57%, versus nearly all of the remaining votes cast for "Uncommitted."
Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot, as the others
all honored an earlier pledge to withdraw their names from the
ballot as a protest against Michigan breaking the DNC-set primary
schedule. LOUISIANA: Congressman Richard Baker (R) announced Tuesday
that he will resign his seat "no later than February 6"
to become the chief lobbyist in DC for the $1.8 trillion hedge
fund industry. Baker's resignation will prompt yet another special
election. Baker was first elected to Congress in 1986, and had
been openly pondering retirement for months.
A special election could be set for as soon as March 8 -- the
same day of the special election to fill the US House seat left
vacant by the election of Bobby Jindal (R) as Governor. State
Representative Don Cazayoux (D) was already an active candidate
for the seat prior to Baker's announcement. Others now looking
at the special election include Secretary of State Jay Dardenne
(R), State Representatives Hunter Greene (R) and Michael Jackson
(D) and former Baker chief of staff Paul Sawyer (R).
Race rating: GOP Favored.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.16.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
A brief editorial:
Shame on Congressman Richard Baker for his decision to resign
11 months before the end of his term and trigger a costly special
election -- simply because he just cannot wait until the end of
this term to start earning a bigger paycheck. Just pathetic. And
greedy.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 01.16.08 | Permalink
|
unexpected
move, former US Senator John Edwards (D) quit the Presidential
race on Wednesday. Polls since Iowa had shown Edwards mired far
behind in third place, but he had until Wednesday vowed to continue
forward until the convention to advance his populist economic
message. In withdrawing from the race, Edwards endorsed neither
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Instead, he said he was simply
asking both to commit to dealing with the cause of ending poverty
in America. Edwards' senior advisor Joe Trippi told reporters
that both Clinton and Obama were "banging down the doors"
to win Edwards' endorsement. Although he did not yet make any
endorsement, pundits generally seem to believe Obama will be the
biggest beneficiary on Super Tuesday of Edwards' exit. Clinton
and Obama will debate Thursday night in what may be the most important
televised debate of the primary season. In other Dem news, US
Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) endorsed Clinton this week.
Ralph
Nader -- the 1996 and 2000 Green Party nominee for President --
is back for a sixth run for President in 2008. On Wednesday he
filed paperwork to establish an Independent exploratory committee
for President. Nader, 73, also launched his 
McCain
scored a narrow but crucial victory over Mitt Romney in the Florida
GOP primary on Tuesday. The results: McCain - 36%, Romney - 31%,
Rudy Giuliani - 15%, Mike Huckabee - 13%, Ron Paul - 3%. The state,
in terms of delegates, was winner-take-all. McCain seemingly gained
ground in the closing days as Giuliani's campaign faded, as GOP
moderates shifted to McCain. Giuliani is expected to quit the
race Wednesday, especially after his election night speech in
which he frequently talked of his campaign in the past tense.
Giuliani plans to formally withdraw from the race and endorse
McCain on Wednesday in California. McCain's victorious campaign,
however, is largely broke. Romney by contrast has personal deep
pockets and can continue forward with the needed financial resources
without breaking a sweat. Further hampering Romney is the fact
that cash-strapped social conservative Huckabee has vowed to continue
his campaign into the February 5 contests. Some Romney strategists
believe Huckabee is now staying in the race solely to draw conservative
votes away from Romney -- in the hope that Huckabee would be selected
as McCain's VP runningmate.
candidacy
papers with less than an hour to go before the filing deadline.
Instead -- in what was clearly a coordinated move -- Lewis Chief
of Staff Daniel London filed for the GOP nomination in CD-2. Then,
with just minutes remaining, State Senator Brett Guthrie (R) also
filed paperwork for the open seat. Expect a hot contest here,
as State Senator David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive
Reid Haire both filed as Democrats for the CD-2 seat. CD-2 Race
Rating: Toss-Up. In CD-3, four Republicans -- including former
Congresswoman Anne Northup and former pro-football player Chris
Thieneman -- filed to oppose freshman Congressman John Yarmuth
(D). CD-3 Race Rating: Leans DEM. In the US Senate race, eight
Democrats and one minor GOP challenger filed to run against Senator
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R). Race Rating: GOP Favored.
upon
the pollster you trust, either John McCain or Mitt Romney is leading
in Florida. Some polls show McCain leading, while others show
Romney narrowly ahead. Nearly all polls show the two men within
three-points of each other. Romney and McCain both took pointed
shots at each other throughout Monday while campaigning in the
state. Both men need a win in Florida to provide a major boost
in this GOP winner-take-all contest before heading into the February
5 states. One thing is clear: Rudy Giuliani is running a distant
third and will be forced to quit the race this week because of
his poor Florida finish. On Monday, Giuliani hinted to his media
entourage that these are his campaign's final days as he gave
each one gifts. Giuliani should have studied history better, as
John Lindsay was the last NYC Mayor to run for President (D-1972)
-- and he also mistakenly gambled on Florida to provide a needed
kick-start victory. As for Mike Huckabee, he's simply fighting
with Giuliani for third place.
obscure
received
a major boost in Florida over the weekend, winning the endorsement
of Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R). As Crist has sky-high approval
ratings in the state, the endorsement is big news. US Senator
Mel Martinez also endorsed McCain on Saturday, but the back-story
is more amusing. Martinez had originally agreed to endorse McCain
a week ago, then backed out hours before the scheduled announcement
due to pressure from some key Rudy Giuliani backers. Mitt Romney's
campaign said Martinez then assured them he would "remain
neutral" for the primary -- but then Martinez changed his
mind again and endorsed McCain. Romney, however, continues to
dominate the airwaves in the state with his heavy TV buys. One
spot, running on Spanish language TV stations, goes so far as
to describe Romney as "America's best businessman."
McCain has increased his TV buys in Florida -- a winner-take-all
state for the GOP -- while Giuliani's fading campaign runs ads
only infrequently. Huckabee is not on TV in Florida. 
father
was President ... Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that
someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves,
to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together
we can do great things ... We have that kind of opportunity with
Senator Obama ... I have never had a President who inspired me
the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the
first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president
-- not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans,"
she wrote. Just a day after his niece's article was published,
US Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) will endorse Obama at a rally in
DC on Monday. Both Clinton and Obama had heavily courted Kennedy's
prized endorsement. The Politico reported that former President
Bill Clinton desperately called Kennedy over the weekend in a
failed effort to derail the endorsement. The Clintons had considered
Kennedy a close friend. NBC news reports it was purportedly President
Clinton's conduct over the past few weeks -- and the perceived
interjecting of race in the contest -- that so offended Kennedy
it pushed him from his neutral stance into a decision to endorse
Obama. Senator Kennedy's endorsement is possibly the single biggest
political endorsement any Democrat can land -- except for President
Clinton's endorsement. Congressman Xavier Becerra (D-CA), the
highest ranking Latino in the US House, also endorsed Obama over
the weekend. And -- yet another endorsement -- Kansas Governor
Kathleen Sebelius (D) will also announce her support of Obama
on Monday. In response to the slew of influential endorsements,
a Clinton spokesman tersely responded: "At the end of the
day, the voters are going to choose a candidate on their merits,
not on their endorsements." 
Clinton,
meanwhile, made a swing through Florida on Sunday, and will return
to the Sunshine State again for Tuesday's primary. The Sunday
stops were styled as fundraisers, but her airport arrivals were
choreographed to ensure it was clear to Florida TV news viewers
she was making stops in the state and speaking with the media
about the delegate controversy. Although no delegates are at stake
because of DNC sanctions -- and the Dem candidates had all previously
pledged to avoid campaigning in Florida during the primary --
Clinton told the AP she thought it was important to go to Florida
now to assure Democrats that "their voices are heard"
and she will support seating all of their delegates. "Hundreds
of thousands of people have already voted in Florida and I want
them to know I will be there to be part of what they have tried
to do to make sure their voices are heard," she added. By
contrast, Obama and Edwards say they both intend to keep their
pledges by avoiding campaign activity in Florida for the primary.
In related news, US Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) endorsed Clinton
last week.
Barack
Obama scored a surprisingly large 28-point landslide victory in
the state over Hillary Clinton. Clinton had held a double-digit
lead in South Carolina less than two months ago, so this outcome
indicates a significant shift in overall voter sentiments. The
vote seemed to be a sharp rejection of the Clinton campaign strategy
-- particularly using former President Bill Clinton as the attack
surrogate -- of interjecting race into their attacks. Even on
primary day, President Clinton did it again. He was asked a question
of whether he thought it was "fair" that he and Senator
Clinton were seemingly "double teaming" Obama in the
state. In response, President Clinton instead dismissively and
pointedly noted that Jesse Jackson won the state in 1984 and 1988
(translation: this Obama victory was just a black vote for a black
candidate in a black state). Overall, Obama captured 25% of the
white vote, with Clinton and Edwards dividing the rest of the
white vote. Exit polls showed it was younger white voters who
were most negatively impacted by the Clinton racial strategy,
as half of this entire demographic group voted for Obama. Clinton
and Obama nearly evenly split the bulk of the the white male vote
(all age groups combined), with Edwards capturing the remainder.
The SC results: Obama - 55%, Clinton - 27%, Edwards - 18%.
Republican
Presidential hopefuls debated in Florida on Thursday evening --
the twentieth GOP debate of the campaign. Contrasted with the
recent Democratic debate, the GOP candidates gingerly avoided
serious clashes nearly all evening. In related news, several independent
polls now confirm that Rudy Giuliani has plummeted into a distant
third place in Florida. Likewise, the polls now show Mitt Romney
either virtually tied with or now slightly leading John McCain
in the Sunshine State. FYI: As a Floridian, I'm seeing tons of
Romney TV spots on the air, versus just a small number of Giualiani
and McCain spots. 
President
Bush. This week the group distributed large pro-Bush campaign
buttons to all of the GOP legislators on Capitol Hill. In a tongue-in-cheek
letter accompanying the pins, Woodhouse wrote: "It is with
great pleasure that I am able to present you with this limited
edition 'I am a Bush Republican' commemorative button on the occasion
of President Bush’s final State of the Union Address. It would
be a shame to let this event pass without a show of solidarity
among those who have stood by him and enabled his legacy to be
established on so many issues. Without your steadfast support
of President Bush’s domestic, foreign and economic policies, there
is no doubt America would not be in the position it is in today.
Please wear this button on Monday evening to show your constituents
that you support President Bush, his policies and how proud you
are of your contribution to his legacy."
Clinton-Obama
war of words continued, with yet more mud flying back and forth.
In some good news for Clinton, Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA) -- who
served as DNC Chair under President Clinton -- endorsed Hillary
Clinton on Wednesday. John Edwards, meanwhile, is hitting the
national TV shows with a message of being the only candidate who
remains focused on issues like poverty, health care and the ending
the war. Edwards simply has no reason to exit the race -- despite
however far out of first place he finishes in South Carolina --
so long as the fighting continues. Moving on to Florida -- a state
in which Hillary Clinton is expected to win on January 29 -- the
DNC's sanctions against Florida Democrats seem to having no impact
on voters. "For Democrats, the number of returned absentee
ballots in Florida so far exceeds the total number turned in in
the 2004 general election, and the number of Democratic early
voters plus the number of absentees requested is more than the
number of actual voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada combined,"
reported Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic.
Duncan
Hunter (R-CA) -- who last weekend ended his Presidential race
after lackluster performances -- endorsed Mike Huckabee on Wednesday.
Huckabee, meanwhile, has largely withdrawn from the Florida contest
due to a lack of financial resources. He canceled all media buys
in the state and is curtailing campaign events in Florida. Huckabee
already is starting to sound like someone expecting to soon be
eliminated. "If the campaign doesn’t make it all the
way, we want to walk away completely in the black," said
Huckabee to the New York Times. Retired Army General Norm
Schwarzkopf endorsed John McCain on Wednesday. McCain, however,
is also apparently cash strapped, as he flew to New York on Wednesday
for a fundraiser expected to raise roughly a million dollars.
McCain has almost no money left for February 5 media buys. By
contrast, Mitt Romney has the ability to continue self-funding
his campaign in an effort to simply outlast -- at least, financially
-- all of his rivals during what now may be a prolonged primary
season. US Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) -- a former Fred Thompson
backer -- endorsed Romney on Wednesday. New independent Florida
polling shows Romney moving into a close second behind McCain,
with Rudy Giuliani slipping into third. A third place finish for
Giuliani in the Sunshine State would end his campaign.
GORE
ON GAY MARRIAGE: Yeah, I know he's not running for President,
but ... former Vice President Al Gore (D) weighed in on the gay
marriage debate this week with a statement recorded for the Current.com
cable TV channel. "I think that gay men and women ought to
have the same rights as heterosexual men and women, to make contracts,
to have hospital visiting rights, to join together in marriage.
And I don’t understand why it is considered by some people
to be a threat to heterosexual marriage to allow it by gays and
lesbians. Shouldn’t we be promoting that kind of faithfulness
and loyalty to one’s partner regardless of sexual orientation,"
said Gore.
Governor
Matt Blunt (R) unexpectedly announced Tuesday he will not seek
re-election to a second term this year. Recent polls showed him
trailing Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) in the gubernatorial race.
Blunt was also facing a possible GOP primary from State Treasurer
Sarah Steelman. Blunt -- who had already raised several million
dollars for his '08 campaign -- said he decided not to run against
because he had already "achieved virtually everything I set
out to accomplish, and more ... Because I feel we have changed
what I wanted to change in the first term, there is not the same
sense of mission for a second." Blunt had given no indication,
including in last week's State of the State Address, that this
move was coming. House Speaker Rod Jetton (R) told the St.
Louis Post-Dispatch that legislators on both sides of the
aisle were "shocked ... [and] just speechless" over
the news. Possible GOP candidates for Governor now include Steelman,
Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, Congressman Kenny Hulshof and
former US Senator Jim Talent.
Republican
National Chair -- was all set to endorse John McCain on Tuesday.
Then, after Martinez and McCain staffers had coordinated the announcement
details, Martinez backed out of his promised endorsement just
a day before the planned event. Purportedly, several individuals
who had helped Martinez raise funds in his '04 Senate race --
and who are now involved with Rudy Giuliani's campaign -- pressured
Martinez into backing-out of his promised endorsement. "Martinez
has a spine of jello," one McCain advisor griped to Politics1,
after confirming this chronology of events. 
Duncan
Hunter made significant efforts in the state -- a move which paid
off for Romney. The numbers: Romney - 51%, Paul - 14%, McCain
- 13%, Huckabee and Thompson tied with 8% each, Giuliani - 4%,
and Hunter - 2%. The GOP race now moves on the Florida on January
29, while the Dem contest next moves to South Carolina on January
26.
third
and Fred Thompson fourth. SurveyUSA places McCain 4% ahead of
Huckabee, with Thompson and Romney tied for third. ARG says Huckabee
leads McCain by 7%, with Thompson third and Romney fourth. Zogby
claims Romney is "closing in" on the leaders, but ARG
says Romney's support in the state is rapidly plunging. As with
most recent South Carolina primaries, dirty tricks abound with
various anonymous slams -- some outright false -- aimed at McCain,
Huckabee and Romney. McCain and Huckabee would both like wins
here to boost their chances heading into the Florida primary on
January 29. That is probably why Huckabee has gone out of his
way for the past two days to repeatedly offer thinly coded support
for returning the controversial Confederate battle flag to the
top of the State Capitol dome. For Thompson, the state is make-or-break
for him -- and right now it doesn't look good. Thompson skipped
the NH primary to focus on this state. The SC Dem primary is January
26.
